Does gerrymandering risk tidal wave reversal?

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The Politicus
May 18, 2017 03:46 PM 0 Answers
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The voting population of gerrymandered districts is distributed so as to provide "safe" margins of victory in many districts while "wasting" opposition votes concentrated in a few districts. What happens if there is a big reversal of the political winds? It seems imaginable that under such circumstances previously safe margins would become unsafe and produce a very large change of electoral outcomes from those predicted in ordinary circumstances.

Put in a few words, could gerrymandering be productive in ordinary times but very counterproductive in unusual circumstances? Has this question been examined by modeling or other systematic analysis? Is this question relevant to the 2018 House elections?

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  • May 18, 2017