Russia have always stated that Ukraine into NATO was a "red line" issue. It doesn't seem like that statement was respected, and now here we are, with Russia invading Ukraine.

My question is, was this an issue of NATO and Ukraine calling the bluff of Russia, and then being surprised at the invasion, or was this an issue of NATO and Ukraine down-right expecting the invasion?

I think the answer to this question is highly relevant, since if it is the former, i.e. Russian invasion was NOT expected but merely considered a bluff, then it is highly likely that Ukraine, now realizing the gravity of Russia's threats, will agree to peace terms that may involve distansting themselves from NATO.

However, if it is the latter that is the case, i.e. Ukraine expected Russian aggression all along but still maintained their desire to join NATO, then I find it highly unlikely that there is a peaceful resolution to this war.

So... which one is it?