Last updated on September 22, 2020
538 has a new web page up, 2020 Election Forecast, which shows the current state of vote predictions state by state, and is updated daily. It starts with 24 maps showing the combination of states that give either candidate a win. Right now, there are 5 winning combinations for Trump and 19 for Biden. Further down the page, they also list nine states that have close contests:
(The list changes frequently, I just noticed.)
As far as I can tell (parts of two maps are obscured by a silly and useless cartoon character, argh!), there is only one of these states that shows up on all the maps: Pennsylvania. Every winning combination for either Biden or Trump has Pennsylvania on the winner’s side.
Trump also needs Ohio, Florida, and Texas in all cases, but there are two scenarios where Biden wins without any of those three. Trump also needs Iowa, Georgia, and North Carolina in all scenarios, but Biden doesn’t. Trump also needs either Wisconsin or Arizona, but not both.
538 gives Biden a 74% chance of winning at this moment. A poll taken by the A+ rated Marist College taken Aug 31-Sep 7 shows 53-44, a 9-point lead. Biden leads (or ties) in all categories except the economy, where Trump, for reasons known only to God or Mammon, beats him 51-41. NBC, which shares credit with Marist, has a story up which also points out this weakness, along with crime, where the two are tied at 45-all.
Frankly, I find it to see Biden losing the state where he was born and lived until he was 10, a state to which he has always had ties that he keeps current, which sees him favorably, and which Trump only won in 2016 by 44,000 votes, or 0.5%. (Obama/Biden won it in 2012 by 5.4%.) But in this election, WE CANNOT TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED.
Both Biden and the Great Orange Shitgibbon are aware of this. They both visited the 9/11 monument there yesterday, and Pennsylvania is one of the two states (NC is the other) where Trump infamously urged his supporters to vote twice.
I’m a total amateur when it comes to giving campaigns advice, but that hasn’t stopped anyone else here from doing so, so here goes: Biden needs to get his numbers up on the economy. It’s his major weak spot in Pennsylvania (and other states). Granted, Trump is doing all he can to hurt the actual economy, but he’s still bamboozling voters into thinking he is better on it than Biden. Trump had always planned on riding to victory on the economy that Obama and Biden had created, and we all know that his disastrous handling on Covid-19 was driven by his fear that it would hurt the economy (along with his inability to handle any crisis not of his own making). Biden has to get his numbers up and Trump’s down.
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