I’m trying to look at the 2016 Election Results for TX and combine it with the the early voter turnout data in 2018 to get some idea of Beto O’Rourke’s strategy. Bear with me because I’m making some assumptions that probably will not hold up to the actual results. First, the blue areas of TX appear to from San Antonio and southward, a few counties in West Texas, Austin, Dallas, and Houston. The last three places appear to be islands of blue among a sea of red counties.
Am I correct in my read of that electoral map?
If so, it makes some sense that Democrats would push for maximum turnout of Democrats in those specific locations. This would also mean ignoring many of the smaller populated but far more conservative Republican counties, even though they take up much more geographic area and probably add up to beat the populations in the blue areas.
Correct again? Or am I wrong?
Last time out, Hillary Clinton lost by 9 percentage points, which was a better performance than Obama did in TX in 2012.
Seeing this situaton, Beto decides to try retail politics to pry away enough Democrats in that sea of red to make up for the difference. Correct? Say maybe turning some county like Tarrant where Forth Worth is? Correct? Or am I smoking dope?
It appears from the Texas Tribune data that several of the larger counties will match or even exceed voter turnout levels of 2016. So maybe the idea that Beto is so much more likeable than Hillary and Cruz is less popular than Trump, that the 9 percentage point difference experienced in 2016 closes?
What do you Texans think?