Last updated on October 2, 2020
NYT/Siena College is just out with a poll showing Joe Biden with a lead of 49% to 40% in the key state of Pennsylvania. Siena is rated an A+ pollster.
The survey shows that Trump is not getting the level of support among less educated white voters that help him win Pennsylvania in 2016. This is a group Trump is currently winning by 14%, far short of the 32% margin in 2016. Trump is still winning in rural Pennsylvania by 26%, but that is a 11% falloff from four years ago when he received 37%.
Mr. Biden has not trailed in a public poll of Pennsylvania since June. But his lead narrowed over the summer as the state trended back toward tossup status, evoking memories of Mr. Trump’s slim victory there in 2016. The president has virtually no path to a second term without Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. Mr. Biden could afford to lose the state, but only if he runs the table in other northern battlegrounds that Democrats narrowly lost in 2016 and picks up Arizona.
A Democratic poll for the US Senate race in Alaska shows incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan with only a 46% to 45% edge over Independent Dr. Al Gross who is running with Democratic party support. This is a poor result for an incumbent.
Furthermore, Trump is only leading joe Biden by 47% to 46%, according to the poll. Alaska is not the easiest state to poll, but some of the polls taken in August and July show close races for the US Senate, the US House, and for the presidency.
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