Last updated on July 20, 2020
The New York Times has a good piece out about Joe Biden’s campaign and hpw it’s giving him a great shot at winning Wisconsin:
There are a range of ways Mr. Biden can build a general election coalition in a battleground state like Wisconsin.
He could focus on winning back voters in low-population areas, where Mrs. Clinton suffered big losses in 2016.
He could build on recent Democratic efforts to target the college-educated white voters that Mr. Trump has, at times, repelled, particularly in suburban counties like Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, where Mrs. Clinton outperformed Mr. Obama but also lost some votes to third-party candidates.
Or he could seek to motivate reliable Democratic voters like young people, Black voters and Latino voters in Milwaukee, the Democratic stronghold where voter turnout was down significantly in 2016.
Mr. Biden’s advisers say he will seek to both appeal to persuadable voters and motivate the party’s base, mimicking the successful campaign of Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, a progressive who won re-election in 2018 by an eye-popping 10 points. Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump by 11 points in Wisconsin in a poll by The New York Times and Siena College last month, and more recent polling from other battleground states like Pennsylvania has been even better for him.
Representative Mark Pocan, a Democrat who represents Madison, said Mr. Biden’s campaign had already outpaced Mrs. Clinton’s in terms of investment in and attention to Wisconsin. Mr. Pocan said the Clinton campaign “took the purple state for granted,” citing both a lack of visits and financial support for down-ballot candidates.
Biden is up by a 52% to 43% margin among suburban voters in the ABC News/Washington Post poll.Other polls in the last month show Biden in as good or even better position among suburban voters. The latest Fox News poll has Biden with 49% to 38% lead. Quinnipiac University poll puts Biden ahead by a 56% to 34% margin with suburbanites. The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll has Biden beating Trump 60% to 35% among suburban voters.Our early June CNN poll had Biden with a 14-point lead in the suburbs.In the average of all the polls, Biden's ahead by more than 15 points with suburban voters. This is a historic margin, if it holds.
It’s very clear that the Trump campaign is running scared about losing Wisconsin. They sent Mike Pence back to the state to scare up the base:
Vice President Mike Pence called his Democratic opponents socialists and warned that presumptive nominee Joe Biden was a “Trojan horse for a radical agenda” in a speech Friday at Wisconsin's Ripon College.
Pence touted the economy of the first three years of the Trump administration, and said Trump took “extraordinary action” to combat the COVID-19 pandemic this year. But the bulk of the address, which was billed as a “major speech” by Trump campaign officials, focused on defining Biden as an agent of the radical left.
Pence connected Biden to former Democratic primary candidate Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and other self-identified democratic socialists in the party.
Of course, Pence is using social issues to rile up the base:
“Joe Biden supports taxpayer funding of abortion, repealing the Hyde Amendment, ending a Mexico City policy that prevents federal funding from supporting abortions around the world,” Pence said in an appeal to opponents of abortion in the election swing state. “And Joe Biden even supports late-term abortion — allowing innocent, unborn children to be aborted right up to the moment of birth.”
Trump has repeatedly made similar exaggerated claims about Biden's stance on reproductive rights. The president falsely told Charlotte, North Carolina rally-goers in a March 2 speech that Democrats have “unlimited support for extreme late-term abortion, ripping babies straight from the mother's womb, right up until the very moment of birth.”
Biden, who up until 2007 opposed all federal funding for abortion procedures, did offer unequivocal support for abortion rights in July 2019. But health experts say that just because someone supports abortion rights, it doesn't mean they back “extreme late-term abortions.” One expert told the Washington Post after Trump's March claim that the concept of “abortion up until the moment of birth” is not rooted in reality.
“'Abortion until the moment of birth' does not exist — it's a boogeyman abortion opponents have created to frighten voters and derail rational conversation about constitutional rights,” said Katie L. Watson, a professor at Northwestern University's Feinberg School of Medicine. “Nobody 'supports' it, and nobody does it. No patient ever asks a physician to end her pregnancy 'the moment before birth,' and no physician would agree to do it.”
Trump's allies go back 30 years to find faults with Biden they hope will re-resonate now. Biden and Democrats are fixating on Trump's failings with the coronavirus pandemic.Curiously, the TV ads have been running in just about every Wisconsin media market except Madison. Milfred and Hands explain why.
Trump is behind in the polls, but he was behind in 2016, too, just before he squeaked out victory. So Democrats better not take this election for granted, even though everything seems to be going their way.
We need to make sure Wisconsin goes Blue big time this year. Click below to donate and get involved with Biden’s campaign and Wisconsin Democratic Party:
The Politicus is a collaborative political community that facilitates content creation directly on the site. Our goal is to make the political conversation accessible to everyone.Any donations we receive will go into writer outreach. That could be advertising on Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit or person-to-person outreach on College campuses. Please help if you can: