DAVOS/SWITZERLAND, 23JAN13 - James Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co., USA is listens during the session 'The Global Financial Context - Reinforcing Critical Systems' at the Annual Meeting 2013 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 23, 2013.....Copyright by World Economic Forum....swiss-image.ch/Photo Remy Steinegger

We’re at a crucial point, with the Coronavirus, with the economy collapsing and America’s political future hanging in the balance. At this time, Joe Biden seems poised to the Democratic nomination. To this I have to warn: do NOT nominate Joe Biden. It would be an absolute disaster, not just in 2020 (though it would be), but for decades to come.

To explain, I'm going to work backwards, starting with the long term consequences I'm certain of, (specifically the political ones since that's what most people seem to care about), then get to the potentially more disastrous immediate ones.

Joe Biden’s Political Strategy Ensures A Political Catastrophe For The Democrats In The 2022 Midterms, The 2024 Election And Decades To Come

Joe Biden's candidacy has been banking on (relatively) low youth voter turn and winning over centrist Republicans and Republican leaning candidates alienated by Trump. I'll leave aside whether this could work in 2020, but it would be a disaster in 2022 and a total catastrophe in 2024.

First, to state the obvious, you can't base an election strategy entirely on ignoring young voters in favor of old ones for the simple fact that older voters die and are replaced by younger voters. As a general rule, younger voters are farther to the left, and despite expectations that they'll moderate more than ten years of political experience indicates they have not. By now the “young voters” who Bernie wins in landslide with are anyone under 50. Contrary to the popular narrative, they are showing up for Bernie, they're just simply getting swamped by generally high turnout and discouraged by long waiting lines. However they won't show up if you don't give them a reason.

And you can't simply scold these voters into submission. As a general rule, partisan loyalty counts less for younger voters (the vast majority of whom are independent). And since voting takes time they don't have, especially if they're low income you need to make voting and political activism worth their time. And this is to say nothing of creating generations of young activists who will have internalized the message that the Democratic party is not a viable vehicle for enacting change because its complacent leadership will just keep enacting arbitrary rule changes to shut them out.

Then there's the second part of the equation, the “alienated Republicans” and wealthy suburbanites. Do I even need to explain why that's a dumb long term strategy? Even if they are turned off by Trump (which large majorities aren't), they're just going to shift back to being Republicans afterwards. They don't like Biden, or you. At best it would be a marriage of convenience that would fall apart, entirely to your disadvantage.

And to add to this, with Trump gone the central argument for Biden disappears as well. Republicans will be glad to turn every problem Trump created against Biden, and it'll work. We can be pretty certain of this because that's exactly what they did to Obama. The only way to counter it is to actually have loyal supporters and a convincing counter argument. Biden has neither.

A Biden Administration Would Be A Disaster For Progressive Policy

Biden has often been sold as a person who's more likely to actually get things done than Bernie. First off, not only is this an entirely unsupported argument. Bernie does as well as Biden in the polls, he has a better political organization help candidates down ballot, and he's an accomplished legislator. Moreover, to the extent that Republicans would Sanders a socialist and block everything he'd try, they'd just do that to Biden too. We can say this with absolute certainty because they have done this before.

No, you have to justify this in terms of the type of policies they'd enact, and in every way Biden is a much worse choice. His stated policies are not even remotely sufficient to handle the issues of climate change, healthcare, economic inequality, racial injustice, gender equality and immigration, among other things.

It'd be too long to get into every policy area, but let's focus on something straight forward like healthcare, which is especially key given the coronavirus. Biden has consistently positioned himself to block Medicare for All in favor of relying on Obamacare. This is a terrible idea because it leaves in place all the vulnerabilities and iniquities of the modern healthcare system. For example, the patchwork of private insurers with their own byzantines rules have been a central reason why we haven't been able to get the extensive testing needed to stop the coronavirus. Medicare for All resolves that problem, Biden's plan would not.

You can't justify this by simply say, as Biden has, that Medicare for All is too expensive. Beyond the fact that Medicare for All saves money, the stock market crash brought on by the fact that people can't get the testing needed to stop a pandemic has destroyed far more wealth than it would have cost to simply pay for their healthcare. We are living the exact disaster Medicare for All is designed to prevent.

DAVOS/SWITZERLAND, 23JAN13 - James Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, JPMorgan Chase & Co., USA is listens during the session 'The Global Financial Context - Reinforcing Critical Systems' at the Annual Meeting 2013 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 23, 2013.....Copyright by World Economic Forum....swiss-image.ch/Photo Remy Steinegger
Jamie Daimon as Treasury Secretary would ensure that any policy Biden made would be as corrupt and putative to the average American as it could

It would be generous to say Biden is only offering half measures. In reality he's offering measures that predominantly reinforce problems and build in numerous hidden strings that are designed to not only work against the average person. For example, one policy he's suggested, providing no interest loans to working class people during quarantine based work stoppages, sounds like a good idea at first. But then you realize since those people won't be working they'll be losing a lot of income they can't get back, so you'll just have a bunch of people taking on massive amounts of debt they can't pay back. Only policies a moratorium on mortgages, rents and utilities are certain to help low income people long term. Bernie supports such policies. Biden does not.