No, it's not a “strong economy”, it's actually slowing as Trump keeps lying

2020 will continue Trump’s lying and incessant touting about an economy that has underperformed with the growth given him by PBO. Numbers artificially propped up by deficits and tax cuts will result in a potentially catastrophic and looming recession. Trump’s “trade war” has contributed to global slowing.

With the new year right around the corner, it’s worth considering what the world will look like a year from now. Our pace of change is, after all, light speed: 2020 could bring all sorts of crazy. This is true even if Donald Trump survives impeachment (which is likely) and even if he survives re-election (which is less likely, but still well within the realm of possibility).

We see through a glass darkly. Who would have predicted the Ukraine call that dominated the last half of 2019? Every day, it seems, brings us a new development, insane tweets, and new colorful characters being introduced to this drama. Why should next year be different?

A healthy, if chilling, reminder: Despite our gloominess about the future, this president has not yet been fully tested. Many of the events that could define 2020—the things that would likely determine electoral outcomes—are beyond our control. Right now, Trump is running on a very good economy. Indeed, that alone would probably be enough to guarantee the re-election of a normal incumbent president. But what happens if this economy begins to show signs of slowing? We should not root for this, but the trajectory of an economy matters, and a potential downturn could remove the best card that Trump is holding.




Is a recession coming in 2020 or 2021? Experts continue to debate the conflicting signals, but an equally telling question might be: How does the “Trump economy” compare to Barack Obama’s?

President Trump constantly refers to the economy with descriptors such as “strong,” “terrific” and the “greatest in the history of our country,” but a closer look at the data shows a mixed picture in terms of whether the economy is any better than it was in Obama’s final years. The economy is growing at about the same pace as it did in Obama’s last years, and unemployment, while lower under Trump, has continued a trend that began in 2011.


Most economic indicators show Obama economy did far better than Trump. washingtonpost.com/business/2019/… Job gains, unemployment & GDP growth, all slowing under Trump. Trump achieved by: – Weakening financial & environmental regs – Alienating allies & breaking trade agreements 

During his first two years in office, Donald Trump regularly pointed to the stock market as proof of his leadership’s effectiveness. Experts may have shaken their heads, saying that stock values aren’t an accurate measure of the country’s economic performance. But they are popular with voters, who check their 401(k) investments, and, thus, with politicians. Particularly since “presidents can have a major impact on the financial markets in the short run,” said David Kass, professor of finance at the University of Maryland.

And getting short-term response in stocks is much easier than long-term fundamental economic gains that can take years to bear fruit. If there’s an election coming up, juicing the markets is something both major parties like to do.

When it comes to talking himself up, Trump in particular has compared himself to Barack Obama. So, how do the two presidents measure up in terms of growth in major indexes, measured between their inauguration and May 31 of their third year in office?

The short answer is that Trump has quite a way to go. Under Obama, the S&P 500 grew by 56.4%. The Dow Jones Industrials Average was up 50.6% and the Nasdaq, 92.9%.

The numbers under Trump were 21.4% for the S&P 500, 25.2% for the Dow, and 34.2% for Nasdaq.


Petty tyranny begins in the hour before he left for golfing today.



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