Ed Kilgore at New York Magazine nails it:
Savvy Democrats generally understand that if Joe Biden wants to get anything done as president, Democrats need to take the Senate. If Republicans maintain control, Mitch McConnell stands waiting like a bridge troll to obstruct anything a new administration or its House allies might try to accomplish.
Biden will need a lot of help from Senate Democrats should he win, and he’s giving them a hand right now with his increasingly strong position against Donald Trump. Given the polarized atmosphere and a strong trend toward straight-ticket voting (in 2016, no party won a Senate race in a state its presidential candidate lost), a solid Biden win in the presidential race might be just enough to lift his party to the net gain of three seats it needs to achieve control (with a Democratic vice-president breaking a 50–50 tie).
The landscape is most definitely tilting blue. The Cook Political Report’s Senate ratings list contests for two Democratic-held seats as competitive (Michigan is “Lean D,” while Alabama is “Lean R”), while nine Republican-held seats are in play (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina are tossups, while Iowa, Kansas, and both races in Georgia are rated “Lean R”).
Along with the races mentioned above, I would also add Alaska, South Carolina, Kentucky and Texas to that list of Senate races. Mississippi is a very long shot but Mike Espy (D. MS) made the special election close so we’ll see what presidential election turnout will be like. We should have an answer by Tuesday on which Democrat will take on Moscow Mitch. We’ll also know which Democrat will go on to face highly vulnerable U.S. Senator Cory Gardner (R. CO) on Tuesday. We’ll also see who emerges from Texas Democratic Senate primary runoff on July 14th. But Kilgore emphasizes that winning the Presidency and the Senate while expanding our majority in the House are all essential to getting our agenda passed. Hopefully Senate Democrats will quickly get on board with getting rid of the filibuster like U.S. Senator Chris Coons (D. DE), a top Biden ally, has. But the first step is to win. So let’s help Biden and the Senate Democratic candidates get ready to win big. Click below to donate and get involved with their campaigns: