Last updated on June 19, 2020
Something is definitely going on in Kentucky’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. The latest sign is a poll that shows progressive Charles Booker surging past Amy McGrath.
A new poll shows Charles Booker surging past Amy McGrath in Kentucky’s Democratic U.S. Senate primary, with Election Day rapidly approaching on Tuesday.
The survey, conducted by Oakland-based pollster Civiqs and commissioned by progressive think tank Data for Progress, found Booker leading McGrath 44% to 36% in the primary match up, followed Mike Broihier at 4%.
The poll also showed Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell easily beating both McGrath and Booker in potential general election races this fall, though having a smaller margin of victory against Booker.
Civiqs, which has not polled statewide races in Kentucky in the past, conducted the survey of 898 registered voters in Kentucky online from June 13-15, with a 3.8% margin of error.
I know. I know. It’s an online poll. Caveat noted.
There have been mutiple other signs that Booker is surging, and I am not just saying that as a progressive either. Here is the list of latest signs of possible movement in Booker’s direction:
- The estimates are that 52.8% or higher of Louisvillians participating in the Democratic primary. The norm is usually in the 20-25% for turnout in Louisivllle. And Louisville is usually no higher than the rest of the state. However, this time, state turnout is expected to be around 27% based upon requested absentee ballots. Keep in mind that Booker’s base is in Louisville which is the most “liberal” part of the state.
- Booker is getting lots of Media exposure. Yes, the Media LOVES a horse race, and there have been numerous examples of them generating bogus horse race stories for ratings. But I started to hear stories from reporters covering the protest in Louisvlle that Booker’s campaign was active in the protests. Reporters are plugged into the campaigns and talk to other politicos. And they reported that Booker may be surging before this poll showed up.
- Speaking of politicians, Allison Lundergan-Grimes and Greg Stumbo endorsed Booker for the U.S. Senate. Now, I have trashed Lundergan-Grimes for her disasterous race against Moscow MItch in 2014. Grimes and her dad are part of the political establishment in Kentucky. They do not stick their necks out, and Grimes is definitely NO progressive. The same goes for Greg Stumbo. Why would these establishment figures in the Kentucky Democratic Party endorse Booker, unless they knew which way the current wind is blowing? The safe choice for the U.S. Senate would be Amy McGrath, at least according to everyone in and outside of Kentucky. But some in the state party are going for Booker.
- And Booker has his own internal poll that was says he is 7 percentage points down from McGrath.
The Civiqs survey is the first from an independent pollster to examine the Democratic primary race, though the Booker campaign released numbers from their internal pollster on Saturday showing the candidate surging — but still 7 percentage points behind McGrath.
That was on Saturday and before the end of the deadline for the absentee ballot requests deadline this past Monday.
I definitely think that Booker has the momentum. Will it be enough to defeat Amy McGrath who has all the money? I don’t know. But Booker is making a race of it, at least from the political signs.
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