New Poll Has Joe Biden Leading Trump In Nevada 49-45

Jon Ralston and Democratic pollster John Anzalone have the latest news in Nevada:

In the presidential race, even though some people (looks in mirror) have said Nevada is becoming a blue state, the poll says we are still quite purple. Yes, Biden’s lead is just outside the margin of error and it’s almost twice the margin Hillary Clinton won by in 2016. But 4 points is…a close race.

Let’s break down the numbers:

Biden is only ahead of Trump by 8 points – 51-43 – in Democrat-rich Clark County, where Democratic statewide candidates need to win by at least 10 points to feel comfortable. But the changing Washoe County, where Republicans once could count on a victory but where the Democrats now have a slight lead, also provides an edge for Biden – 48-45. (No rural crosstabs, but assume Trump is winning in the other 15 counties by 30 points or so. The poll assumes the rurals will only be 10 percent of the vote, though, and it may be slightly higher in November.)

It’s still almost impossible for the rurals to save Trump, but there are miles to go before we vote.

Biden’s lead among Hispanics – 57-34 – is not as large as Democrats would hope, I’d guess. If Trump can get into the 30s among Latinos, he probably has a chance. And the president is leading among indies – 46-38 – which is keeping him in the race here.

The gender gap is stark: Biden is up 53-39 among women while Trump leads among men, 51-44.

Bottom line: Nevada is still a Democratic-leaning state, but it is a place where a large population of non-college whites and a Hispanic population not yet overwhelmingly wedded to Biden could keep the state in play.

So Nevada leans Biden, but I don’t think the Democrats, based on this poll, can take the state for granted in November.

The poll was conducted April 27-30 and polled 763 likely Nevada voters. I feel very confident that we will win Nevada but Ralston warns us not to take it for granted. I couldn’t agree more. Click here to donate and get involved with Biden’s campaign.