SHAZAM!— David S. Bernstein (@dbernstein) August 15, 2019
Change Research poll, caveats apply, please read all fine print, all wagers finalhttps://t.co/zAXhmsvbf3
Elizabeth Warren’s early investment in Iowa is paying off.
A new Iowa Starting Line-Change Research poll shows the senator opening up a commanding lead in the Iowa Caucus. Warren was the top pick of 28% of likely Iowa Caucus-goers in the poll, an 11-point lead over the nearest competitor. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were both tied for second with 17% each. Pete Buttigieg came in fourth at 13% and Kamala Harris has the backing of 8%.
Both Cory Booker and Beto O’Rourke garnered 3% of caucus-goers’ support, while Steve Bullock, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer got on the board at 2%. Julian Castro, Michael Bennet and Andrew Yang rounded out the field at 1%, while everyone else had less than that.
The poll was conducted online August 9 to 11, right in the middle of peak Iowa State Fair campaigning, and surveyed 621 likely Democratic caucus-goers on questions related to the Democratic horserace. That part of the poll had a ±3.9% margin of error.
The horserace numbers reflect a shake-up that those of us on the ground in Iowa have been seeing for a while. It also shows significant movement from our last Starting Line-Change Research poll from May 15 to 19. Here’s where the top candidates stood in that poll, along with their movement since:
May Poll (change to August)
Joe Biden: 24% (-7)
Bernie Sanders: 24% (-7)
Pete Buttigieg: 14% (-1)
Elizabeth Warren: 12% (+16)
Kamala Harris: 10% (-2)
Beto O’Rourke: 5% (-2)
Polling shows Warren is leading with all age demographics except 18-34-year-olds. Sanders leads with them. This is the first poll to show one of the more progressive candidates in the lead over Biden and it’s showing that the progressive vote isn’t being split between Warren and Sanders. Stay tuned.