NC-Sen: New Poll Has Cal Cunningham (D) Beating Thom Tillis (R) 49-42

Some more good news today out of North Carolina:

In North Carolina, Democrat challenger Cal Cunningham leads incumbent Republican Thom Tillis in the race for Senate.  The latest PolitialIQ poll shows Cunningham in front of Tillis by seven points among Likely North Carolina Voters, 49% to 42%.   The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 4% voting for someone else and 5% not sure.  The margin of error is 3.5%

It’s always a challenge to predict voter turnout, especially in the case of an ongoing pandemic. As a result, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model. This approach takes into account how modest differences in turnout can have a significant impact on results.

In the case of North Carolina, even in a Strong Republican Turnout model, Cunningham maintains a five-point lead, 48% to 43%.  Alternatively, if the Democratic Turnout is stronger than baseline, Cunningham expands his lead to a comfortable 51% to 40%.

This race has been the subject of national interest since early October when Tillis announced he tested positive for the coronavirus.  Around the same time, Cunningham confirmed reports that he had sent sexually oriented texts to a woman other than his wife.

Scott Rasmussen also finds a tight presidential race in North Carolina:

It’s too close to call in North Carolina. The latest PoliticalIQ of Likely North Carolina Voters shows just one point separating the Presidential candidates, with Former Vice President Joe Biden at 48% and President Trump at 47%.  President Trump picked up one point from earlier polling.  The survey, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 3% voting for some another candidate and 2% unsure.

This post-debate poll confirms other national polling showing limited impact from the final debate last Thursday.   This survey also reflects national trends around education.  Those without a college degree continue to strongly support President Trump, in the case of North Carolina, 56 – 41%.

Turnout is always difficult predict in a poll, especially in the case of a surging pandemic. As a result, all PoliticalIQ.com polls are released with three separate turnout models—a baseline projection, a Strong Republican Turnout model, and a Strong Democratic Turnout model. This approach highlights the reality that modest differences in turnout can have a very significant impact on election results.

In North Carolina, the Strong Republican Turnout model shows President Trump narrowly winning the Tar Heel State by two points: 49% to 47%. If Democratic turnout is stronger than baseline, Biden would win by four points, 50% to 46%.

And big numbers for Governor Roy Cooper (D. NC):

In North Carolina, incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper appears poised to run away with the Governor’s race.  The latest PolitialIQ poll shows Cooper with the support of 53% of Likely North Carolina Voters and Republican Dan Forest with the support of 41%.  The poll, conducted by Scott Rasmussen, shows 3% voting for someone else and 3% not sure.  The margin of error is 3.5%

Cooper’s position in the poll reflects his approval rating, as 58% of Likely Voters either Strongly or Somewhat approve of Cooper’s performance.  37% Strongly or Somewhat disapprove. 5% are not sure.

In 2016, Cooper beat Incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory in a nail biter.  On Election Night the race was too close to call and ended going to a recount. McCrory finally conceded in early December.  It was the only gubernatorial seat to flip from Republican to Democrat in 2016.

Harper Polling also just released their polling:

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— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 28, 2020

And Gravis:

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— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 28, 2020

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Let’s keep up the momentum to flip North Carolina Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Cunningham, Cooper, Biden and their fellow North Carolina Democrats campaigns:

Joe Biden

North Carolina:

Cal Cunningham

Roy Cooper For Governor

Yvonne Lewis Holley for Lt. Governor

Josh Stein for Attorney General

Elaine Marshall for Secretary of State

Cheri Beasley for Supreme Court

Lucy Inman for Supreme Court

Mark Davis for Supreme Court

Deborah Ross for Congress

Kathy Manning for Congress

Moe Davis for Congress

North Carolina Democratic Party

Ronnie Chatterji

Jessica Holmes

Pat Timmons-Goodson

Brian Farkas

Adam Ericson

Terence Everitt

Sydney Batch

Kimberly Hardy

Frances Jackson

Ricky Hurtado

Dan Beese

Christy Clark

Brandon Lofton

Donna Lake

Harper Peterson

Allen Wellons

Kirk DeViere

Terri LeGrand