NC, MI & AZ-Sen: CNBC/Change Research Poll Continues To Show Good News For Senate Dems

I have mixed feelings about CNBC/Change Research’s polling but their recent poll tested three U.S. Senate race and here’s some good news:

The failures of GOP governance are threatening Republicans' control of not only the White House, but also the Senate. Cal Cunningham leads Thom Tillis by a significant 12 point margin in North Carolina, Gary Peters leads John James by 4 points in Michigan, and Mark Kelly leads Martha McSally by 2 points in Arizona.

As the U.S. nears record hospitalizations, serious concerns about coronavirus reach 77% nationally (+4 over the past two weeks) and remain 71% in the battleground. Within the battleground, serious concerns increased a few points across the Rust Belt and decreased a few points across the Sunbelt, but serious concerns remain highest in Florida (76%). The number saying things are getting worse also increased nationally (61% from 59% two weeks ago), but decreased 3 points across the battleground as voters have become less pessimistic. To be sure, majorities across every battleground state except for Michigan still say things are getting worse, which is unsettling at this stage in the pandemic.

Pluralities nationally (38%) and in the battleground (43%) continue to say things are reopening too quickly. Despite continued calls for statewide mask mandates, there has been a downtick in the number saying things are opening too quickly in Arizona and Florida. Still, over half say things are reopening too quickly there (51% in Arizona and 57% in Florida).

The poll also has Joe Biden beating Trump in the following battleground states:

Arizona: Biden 47, Trump 45

Florida: Biden 48, Trump 45

Michigan: Biden 46, Trump 42

North Carolina: Biden 49, Trump 46



Pennsylvania: Biden 48, Trump 46

Wisconsin: Biden 48, Trump 43

I doubt that Cunningham has a twelve point or that Peters and Kelly have that small of leads. Here’s some more info from the poll:

Change Research conducted a poll of 2,565 likely voters July 24-26, 2020 across 6 competitive battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. A companion national survey of  1,039 likely voters was also conducted July 24-26, 2020. Unless otherwise stated, the results presented in this analysis are among battleground state voters. The margin of error, as traditionally calculated, is ±1.94% for the battleground and ±3.04% for the national poll. Change Research reaches voters via targeted online ads that point people to an online survey instrument. Our Dynamic Online Sampling establishes and continuously rebalances advertising targets across region, age, gender, race, and partisanship to dynamically deliver large samples that accurately reflect the demographics of a population. Post stratification was done on state, gender, age, race, education, and 2016 presidential vote.

Either way, let’s keep up the momentum and win the White House and Senate. Click below to donate and get involved with Biden, Cunningham, Peters and Kelly’s campaigns:

Joe Biden

Cal Cunningham

Gary Peters

Mark Kelly