NBC/WSJ latest polls shows that Biden is still in the lead (31%,+5 points since July), but Warren support continues to grow (25, +6 points since July).
There is the usual breakdown of who is supporting who. I think you can guess that Biden is getting most of the moderate and black voters, while Warren gets a lot from progressives.
The pollsters looked at enthusiasm, and Warren supporters are more enthusiastic than Biden’s. In fact, Biden has not increased in this regard.
Todd and NBC are pushing the narrative that the race appears to be consolidating around Biden and Warren. It is just one poll, so I want to see a lot more polls before making any conclusions. And I think that will be something that the other candidates will stress because the results are not encouraging for them.
Besides stressing the top numbers on Biden and Warren, NBC is highlighting that Kamala Harris has slipped in the polls (5%, -8 point since July). Once again, we will need to see some other polls to see if that is real.
The other take home is that most of the other candidates seem to be stalled, especially those not in the top three tier (Biden, Warren, and Sanders).
Not to trash the other candidates, but there is previous data that shows some of them are not getting any traction with Democratic voters — Booker and Klobuchar for sure. Buttigieg stayed the same, and Beto’s stance hasn’t changed either.
Yes, the margin of error is 4.36. Take that into consideration.