MT-Sen: New Poll Has Gov. Steve Bullock (D) Beating Sen. Steve Daines (R) 48-47

Some very good news today out of Montana:

The U.S. Senate, House, and governor’s races in Montana are extremely close according to the results of the annual Mountain States Poll released on Wednesday, Oct. 28. The 33rd edition of the poll interviewed 546 likely voters in Montana contacted via live telephone calls to landline and wireless numbers between October 19-24 from the Montana State University Billings campus.

Montana Governor Steve Bullock, the Democratic candidate, leads Sen. Steve Daines (Republican) in the Senate race by a 48 percent to 47 percent and five percent are undecided. In the governor’s race, there is a tie (45 percent to 45 percent between current Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney (Democrat) and Rep. Greg Gianforte (Republican), with Libertarian candidate Lyman Bishop eliciting two percent support. Undecided voters look to hold the key as nine percent of respondents stated they do not know at this point. The race for Montana’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is also extremely close with Republican candidate Matt Rosendale holding a one-point lead (47 percent to 46 percent), with six percent undecided. The margin of error for the poll is4.2 percent. Percentages might not add up to 100 percent as they have been rounded to the nearest whole number.

In all three major statewide races, younger voters (ages 18-29) look to be the key for victory for Democratic candidates as solid majorities support all three Democrats running (57 percent to Bullock vs. 38 percent to Daines, 57 percent to Cooney vs. 40 percent to Gianforte, and 57 percent to Williams vs. 43 percent to Rosendale). However, turnout of the 18-29 age group is markedly lower than any older age groups. According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, only 46 percent of those aged 18-29 voted in the 2016 presidential election nationwide, while 59 percent of those aged 30-44, 67 percent of those aged 45-64, and 71 percent of those 65 and older voted in 2016.

Another key difference that exists between Democratic and Republican candidates is based on party identification. Independents favor Democratic candidates by nearly 15-18 points (56 percent to Bullock vs. 40 percent to Daines, 53 percent to Cooney vs. 35 percent to Gianforte, and 55 percent to Williams vs. 38 percent to Rosendale).

In the presidential race, President Donald Trump (Republican) leads former Vice President Joe Biden (Democrat) by a 52 percent to 45 percent margin. This is a dramatic drop since the 2016 presidential election, where Trump carried Montana by a 20-point margin over Hillary Clinton. Another 1 percent support Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen, while 2 percent of respondents are undecided.

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Let’s keep up the momentum to flip Montana Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Bullock, Cooney, Biden and their fellow Montana Democrats campaigns:

Joe Biden

Steve Bullock for Senate

Mike Cooney for Governor

Kathleen Williams for Congress

Raph Graybill for Attorney General

Bryce Bennett for Secretary of State

Melissa Romano for Superintendent

Shane Morigeau for State Auditor