Last updated on July 30, 2020
Fortunately Trump has too many vices unlike Londo Cotton.
— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum) July 27, 2020
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) July 27, 2020
Quarter-Million Dead:
— CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) July 27, 2020
A Trump win is still within the margin of error
Biden is up by anywhere from eight points (including all polls) to 12 points (just live interview polls) in the national average, depending how you compute it. That's a sizable edge.
If you look at the polling 100 days out from each election involving an incumbent since 1940, the average difference between the polls at this point and the result has been 10 points. If you look at the elections (seven) where we were not in-between conventions at this point, that difference drops to six points.
Trump would need an average to above average error to win the national vote. He would also need that error to go in his direction and not actually benefit Biden. That's unlikely to occur.
This election looks nothing like 2016
Speaking of the 2016 election, Biden's in a much better position than Clinton. Consider this fact: Clinton was hitting her apex in the national polls at this very moment. She had just wrapped up a successful Democratic National Convention, and she held an average 44% to 38% lead in two live interview polls completed 100 days from the election.
Biden's at 52% to Trump's 40% in the live interview national polls taken in July. That is, he's over 50%, unlike Clinton, and has basically double the lead Clinton was holding after her convention.
Simply put, you'd much rather be Biden than Trump. But with some time to go, there's still time for a Trump comeback.
— Greg Brian (@Gregoriancant) July 27, 2020
— Kim Masters (@kimmasters) July 27, 2020
- – February 13, 2017 – Less than one month after Trump took office, Michael Flynn resigned as national security adviser. His resignation followed the public revelation that he had misled Vice President Mike Pence about his contact with Russians. Contrary to what Michael Flynn had told Pence, Flynn had discussed Russian sanctions in a December meeting with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak.
- – February 14, 2017 – Kellyanne Conway told the press that Michael Flynn’s resignation had been voluntary. Just hours later, Sean Spicer said, “Whether or not he actually misled the vice president was the issue, and that was ultimately what led to the president asking for and accepting the resignation of General Flynn.”
- – February 14, 2017 – The day after Michael Flynn resigned, FBI Director James Comey reported Donald Trump requested a private meeting] [BP2] to “talk about Mike Flynn.” Trump told Comey that Flynn had misled Mike Pence about his conversations with Russian representatives, but that Flynn was “a good guy.” Trump said he hoped Comey could “let this go.”
- – February 14, 2017 – In the wake of Michael Flynn’s resignation for lying to senior officials and interacting with Russian representatives after the election, Donald Trump tweeted, “The real story here is why are there so many illegal leaks coming out of Washington? Will these leaks be happening as I deal with N.Korea etc?”
And then there’s local thuggery:
— Christopher Hooks (@cd_hooks) July 27, 2020
— Really American 🇺🇸 (@ReallyAmerican1) July 27, 2020
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