There is a Fox News( cough on the word “News”) poll and a SurveyUSA poll that have come in. I don’t have a direct link to the SurveyUSA poll, so I will give you the 538 page. Both get A ratings from 538, and for Biden supporters, they boost his lead in the race. Fox has Bernie Sanders doing slightly better than Warren, but SurveyUSA has Warren doing slightly better than Sanders.
From this latest data set, it looks like Warren and Sanders are neck and neck. Therefore, Sanders supporters can take heart.
You can see the poll averages in this chart from RCP.
So Biden is still the front runner with Warren and Sanders battling it out for second. But I suppose the only other thing you can see from this data is the other tier of candidates are still essentially stuck.
The data does confirm that Harris has taken a slide, which I have pointed out before has disappointed her donors. I know she is under pressure from her donors to stop that slide and turn things around.
It appears that Buttigieg is around the same level of support that Harris has. I know he has gotten a lot of campaign cash, and the Post is reporting that he is making his first campaign ad buy. I don’t have the link because I’m not a subscriber. Maybe Buittigieg supporters on Daily Kos know how he is spending that money. Organization in Iowa? All I can say is that he was campaigning in Louisville, KY the other day.
Does Buttigieg need a breakout moment or some steady growth soon? I would think so, but I am reasonably sure that he is one of those centrists who is waiting for Biden to implode and offer himself as the alternative. Frankly, I don’t think that any candidate should wait for Biden to implode. It hasn’t happened yet.
Then there are the next tier that are under 4% in an average of the polls: Yang, Beto, Booker, Klobuchar, Steyer, and Castro.
Steyer just got in and has the money, so he faces no “Come to Jesus” moment.
Yang is gathering some more supporters, or so I have read. And he is having too much fun to get out now.
Beto is betting that his courageous stance on guns will help Democrats give him another look, and he has a network of supporters. No way he quits before Iowa.
I like Julian Castro, but the reality is that Democratic voters don’t like candidates who throw punches at Biden. I’m not sure he will make it to Iowa.
Booker has some deep pocket donors from the New York area, but are there enough of them to keep him afloat? Booker is not catching on, despite some good debate performances. My betting is that unless something changes radically, he may not make it to Iowa.
Klobuchar is hoping that she will make it to Iowa, and she may just tough it out because she has staked a lot on being Midwestern. But her message is not resonating with Democrats so far. Kind of hard to say that you are the moderate alternative to Warren and Sanders when Biden appears to have the moderate Democratic voter lane occupied.
Which has the been the biggest beef from the centrists in this campaign season. The centrist campaigns have not been able to dislodge supporters from Biden, at least not enough to be competitive. While a lot of attention has been paid to the “Progressive versus Moderate” debate in this campaign, Biden’s presence has been chocking off the oxygen to the other centrists candidates.
Things can change in this race because only 9% of Democrats have made up their mind (once again, I’m in a minority. Shocking!). And many of the other Democratic candidates are hoping and praying for that. Time will tell.