ME-Sen: New Poll Has Sara Gideon (D) Beating Susan Collins (R) 51-49

Here’s the latest news today out of Maine courtesy of the The Bangor Daily News/SurveyUSA poll on ranked choice voting:

The survey of 1,007 likely voters had an error margin of 3.7 percent for statewide contests. It was conducted from Oct. 23-27 by SurveyUSA, and paid for by FairVote, a nonprofit that supports ranked-choice voting and has partnered with the BDN on polling in recent years.

In the U.S. Senate race, Gideon led with 46 percent of votes compared to 45 percent for Collins. Savage came in at 4 percent and Linn at 1 percent in an initial round of voting. The Democrat has narrowly led Collins in polling all year, but her lead — well within the margin of error — is consistent with the tightening of the race in recent weeks.

Gideon made small gains, however, when the second- and third-choice votes of Linn and Savage supporters were redistributed, finishing with 51 percent compared to 49 percent for Collins. That result came after Savage supporters — 55 percent, the poll found — listed Gideon as their second choice. The former Green party member is running on a progressive platform and has suggested her supporters rank Gideon second.

Linn supporters were less consistent, with roughly equal amounts ranking Collins second, ranking Savage second and ranking no one. Linn, a Trump supporter running on an eclectic mix of populist and conservative ideas, has argued that Collins and Gideon are virtually the same.

Here are the presidential numbers:

Keep in mind that SurveyUSA’s numbers are tighter but Colby College’s poll gives Gideon a 4 point race:

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Jared Golden