An independent poll released today shows Democrat Dan McCready has a 4% lead in the September 10th rerun election for North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District. State Senator Dan Bishop is the Republican candidate.
The survey, conducted Aug. 26-28 by Harper Polling and Clarity Campaign Labs, showed McCready with a 46-42 percent advantage over Bishop, and two third party candidates receiving a combined 3 percent. When leaners are included, McCready’s advantage extended to 49-44 percent.
In Nov. 2018, McCready finished behind Republican Mark Harris 49.3-48.9 percent, but a winner was never certified or seated in Congress because of allegations of fraud by a GOP consultant affiliated with the Harris campaign.
Donald Trump won the district by 54% to 43% in 2016, but this poll shows his approval rate has weaken with 47% approving and 48% disapproving in the district.
Comparisons of early voting trends for NC CD-9 look somewhat favorable for McCready since registered Democrats have a bigger edge in early voting than in 2018. However, the overall early vote total is only half of what it was in 2018. This is to be expected for a special election with the early voting days, so far, all in August.
A win by a Democrat would further dishearten Republicans and likely lead to more retirements by Republicans in the US Congress. Then too, North Carolina is close enough politically to be competitive in the races for US Senator and President.
Republican Senator Thom Tillis is likely closely watching NC CD-7 since he is up for re-election in 2020. A morning Consult Poll from July shows his approval rating is 33% versus 35% who disapprove. The Senator is relatively unknown in his own state and not widely popular.