like the stock market isn't the economy, America just isn't the 12 states of the 2020 campaign
Maybe we can now just wait for every vote to be counted. Fortunately we’re past the fail-safe point of the Comey email fiasco of 2016 and its associated manipulation by the NY Times. We may be out of October Surprises. Even Putin seems to have officially cut Trump loose.
Then on October 27, Michael Bloomberg, former New York mayor and presidential candidate, pumped $15 million into two Republican strongholds, Texas and Ohio. He had been laser-focused on Florida, contributing $100 million towards turning that state blue. But as we entered the home stretch of the election, Bloomberg’s private polling sources indicated Trump’s vulnerabilities in two states that he had won by wide margins in 2016, Texas and Ohio. The last minute, multimillion-dollar boost will air intensive ad campaigns in all television markets in both states.
Bloomberg’s decision is indicative of just how much the electoral tectonic plates have shifted recently. The reason? Coronavirus and Trump’s total and catastrophic deception and lack of leadership when the country needed it most. It did not go unnoticed by suburban women and fanned the flames of his unpopularity going into the final days.
But what if Trump wins Pennsylvania a second time? Polling expert Nate Silver examines that possibility on his FiveThirtyEight website.
Silver notes that although polls are showing Biden with an advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin, “The polls have been tighter in Pennsylvania.” Citing FiveThirtyEight's polling analysis, Silver explains, “Biden's current lead is just 5.1 points, and in 2016, polls were off by 4.4 points in the Keystone State — Trump won it by 0.7 points after trailing in our final polling average by 3.7 points there. So, with a 2016-style polling error in Pennsylvania, Biden would be cutting it awfully close — perhaps even so close that court rulings on factors like 'naked ballots' could swing the outcome.”
“(Pennsylvania) is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2% chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania,” Silver argues. “Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He'd have a 30% chance if he lost Pennsylvania, which isn't great but is also higher than, say, Trump's overall chances on Election Day 2016.”
If Biden loses Pennsylvania, according to Silver, he still has some paths to victory, but minus Pennsylvania, the Sun Belt becomes even more important for him. Sun Belt states in which Biden is competitive include Florida, Arizona and Georgia, among others.
It wouldn't be the blowout that Democrats hope for, but Biden would still retain an edge in the Electoral College even without winning his birth state.”