Last updated on October 28, 2020
this is just a thinking exercise
We are currently getting 5million votes per day. That will drop on weekends a bit PERHAPS if some states don’t allow voting on either Saturday or Sunday.
We have AT LEAST 42 Million votes in already.
In 2016 there were approximately 135 million votes cast.
Hillary got 65,853,514
Trump got 62,984,828
For simplicity I will round both up 66 million to 63 million.
Now let’s look at early voting. There are 7 more weekdays. Assume each of those gets average of 5 million early votes between in person and absentee either mailed or dropped off. That would add 35 million votes. Add another 5 million at least for the two remaining weekends. That would be a total of 82 million votes before election day. For now let’s round down to 80 million.
On that basis we will have a total vote of at least 150 million — and it could be substantial morel.
Now presume both sides are turning out people who did not vote in 2016. Let’s presume that Trump could increase his vote by 10% — or if you prefer, 15%. That would be either 6.3 or 9.45 million votes.
Except — all evidence is that Trump is losing some percentage of those who voted for him in 2016. Let’s conservatively say that is 5%. that is 3.15 million votes.
So the top of Trump’s vote seems to be in range of 66.15 million to 69.3 million votes for Trump.
Remember, I am being generous to Trump.
Now presume 150 million total votes.
Assume 3% total for minor party candidates.
That leaves145.5 million to be divided between Trump and Biden
Now we take the Trump numbers. Let’s just d the 15% increase, which gives Trump 69.3 million votes.
Now we subtract that from 145.5 million and Biden would have 76.2 million votes, between Trump by 6.9 million — Clinton had approximately 2.8 million votes more than Trump in 2016.
Take the lower 10% increase and the math is 145.5 — 66.15 which would give Biden a margin of 79.35 million votes. Let’s just say that at that level you could expect Biden to have an electoral college total in excess of 400. Even the lower margin would probably result in at least 330+ electoral votes.
Yes things can still change. Biden in theory could blow up at tomorrow’s debate (very unlikely). Maybe the total votes will be lower (if anything I think that number must be higher). Some votes will not be counted — mail issues, court rulings, lack of signature matches. I know all that.
But what I am seeing in the massive in person early turnout seems in direct response to fears by some people that mail in votes might not count.
THIS IS JUST A THINKING EXERCISE. IT IS NOT A PREDICTION.
I may offer that in a couple of days.
For now, I remain highly skeptical that Trump can win. I have other reasons for thinking that.
But I thought this thinking exercise might be of interest.
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