From The Hill just now: Biden doubles lead over Trump to 12 points in national poll
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Former Vice President Joe Biden doubled his lead over President Trump to 12 points as voters expressed disapproval with the Trump administration's handling of the coronavirus, racial tensions and the economy, according to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill.
Fifty-six percent of likely voters said they would vote for Biden if the election was held today, while 44 percent said they would back Trump, wider than the Democrat's 6-point lead in the same poll last month.
Even more significant than the size of the lead is that this is a poll of likely voters. I thought they didn’t start polling those until after Labor Day, but maybe pollsters are judging that the electorate is already so involved that likely voters can be identified.
The poll isn’t all great news:
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Meanwhile, polls out of Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan also show Biden leading the president, though with narrower margins, raising the prospect the election could tighten with over four months to go before the election.
On the other hand, these polls were done June 17-18, before Trump’s disastrous Tulsa rally, where he not only drew far fewer people than expected, but also admitted he’s trying to slow down coronavirus testing. (Which he doubled down on yesterday.) Given that the poor attendance may have been due to legitimate fears of Covid-19, and given that, unfortunately, the experts are predicting a new wave of Covid-19 cases in the fall, and given that red states are already seeing record numbers of Covid-19 hospitalizations, and most importantly, given that Bunker Boy is totally incapable of doing anything constructive about the pandemic, I don’t see his numbers tightening.