In a move somewhat reminiscent of 2018’s blue wave in US House elections, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted ratings on 10 US House away from the Republican candidates and has moved one Democratic seat in the other direction. Four of the ones shifted today are GOP seats in Texas.
Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes
|Member/District||Old Rating||New Rating|
|David Schweikert (R, AZ-6)||Likely Republican||Leans Republican|
|Katie Porter (D, CA-45)||Likely Democratic||Safe Democratic|
|CO-3 Open (Tipton, R)||Likely Republican||Leans Republican|
|IN-5 Open (Brooks, R)||Leans Republican||Toss-up|
|Antonio Delgado (D, NY-19)||Leans Democratic||Likely Democratic|
|Peter DeFazio (D, OR-4)||Safe Democratic||Likely Democratic|
|Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1)||Likely Republican||Leans Republican|
|Dan Crenshaw (R, TX-2)||Safe Republican||Likely Republican|
|Van Taylor (R, TX-3)||Safe Republican||Likely Republican|
|Roger Williams (R, TX-25)||Safe Republican||Likely Republican|
|Ron Wright (R, TX-6)||Safe Republican||Likely Republican|
Saboto says Democrats are likely to hold on to their US House majority.
— Joe Biden’s currently strong lead in the presidential race is being felt in the suburbs, which if it lasts could imperil Republicans in some of their formerly dark red turf.
— Texas merits special attention, where as many as 10 Republican-held House seats could become vulnerable if Trump were to lose the state.
Texas CD-23 is already considered a “Lean Democratic” seat as Republican William Hurd is retiring from a seat that narrowly went for Hillary Clinton. Two other Texas districts are considered tossups, TX CD-22 (Open) and TX CD-24 (Open).
Two other Texas districts are rated as “Lean Republican”, TX CD-10 (McCaul) and TX CD-21 (Roy). Five Republican held districts are now considered “Likely Republican”, TX CD-2 (Crenshaw); TX CD-3 (Taylor); TX CD-6 (Wright); TX CD-25 (Williams); and TX CD-31 (Carter).
Today’s poll by PPP shows Biden leading in Texas 48% to 46%.
Recent internal polling in a several of these district may have prompted changes in the ratings.
In Indiana CD-5, GBAO showed Democrat Hale leading Republican Spatz (51% to 45%) in an open Republican seat. In TX CD-6, Republican Wright leads Democratic Daniel by only 4%, (45% to 41%).
Earlier in June, a poll by Victoria Research showed a tie in PA CD-1 with incumbent Fitzpatrick and Democrat DiFinello at 46% each.