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With just three days remaining before the Saturday election for the governorship of Louisiana, Republican candidate and House representative Ralph Abraham is pulling out the symbolic, Trump-friendly gestures in order to rally the base to vote out Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards. On Tuesday, the congressman for northeastern Louisiana’s fifth district filed a resolution to expel Speaker Nancy Pelosi from the House, citing a clause in the Constitution which allows lawmakers to “punish its members for disorderly behavior, and, with the concurrence of two-thirds, expel a member.”
“Nancy Pelosi’s vicious crusade against our lawfully-elected President is nothing more than a politically-motivated witch hunt and it must be stopped,” Abraham’s statement read, borrowing its tone from that of the president. “She has disgraced the people’s House and weaponized the Speaker’s gavel for her party’s political gain. House Democrats spent nearly three years obsessed with election meddling only to dwarf any such efforts with their own deceitful plan to nullify the 2016 election and prevent President Trump from winning in 2020.”
It’s not the most viable political threat: Since 1789, only five representatives have been expelled from the House. Three were booted for supporting the Confederacy, while Pennsylvania Dem Michael Myers was removed as part of the Abscam sting in 1980 (aka the rough plot of American Hustle) and Ohio Dem James Traficant was removed in 2002 following his conviction for 10 felony counts including bribery, racketeering, and tax evasion. Choosing to wield power and launch an impeachment inquiry into the president’s potentially criminal, definitely unethical behavior hardly puts Pelosi in the above camp. Plus, to expel a member of Congress requires that two-thirds vote; like an impeachment vote in the Republican-controlled Senate, the current Democratic House majority makes such a result impossible. (Of the Republican letters sent on Tuesday, the more concerning memo came from the White House, as the president informed Democrats that he would not cooperate with the impeachment inquiry, calling it “It calls the proceedings “illegal,” and “unconstitutional.”)
A final Emerson College pre-election primary poll in the Louisiana Governor race finds Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards leading with 48% of the vote. Republican Businessman Eddie Rispone and Republican Congressman Ralph Abraham follow in a statistical tie, with 25% and 19% respectively. Independent Gary Landrieu is at 4%, Republican Patrick Landry is at 3% and Democrat Oscar Dantzler at 1%. (Oct 4-7, MM, n=467, +/-4.5%)
This jungle primary will be held on Saturday, October 12, 2019. If no candidate reaches 50% on Saturday, a general two-candidate election will be held on November 16.
Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll points out: “the poll shows incumbent Governor Edwards with a chance to win the race outright. However, if he does fall short of 50%, there is a competitive race to watch between Rispone and Abraham to determine who will challenge Edwards on November 16th.”
Kimball went on to say that “this race is close enough that one of the third tier candidates winning just a few percentage points could pull enough of the vote to keep Edwards from clearing the 50% threshold, on the flip side a melt of support could put Edwards over the top.”
Respondents were first asked their vote preference with an option of undecided, of which 5% of voters said they were still undecided. These voters were then asked a follow up question asking which candidates they leaned toward at this time, Edwards took 43% of the undecided vote, which combined with his base vote moves him from 46% to 48%. Both Rispone and Abraham’s vote share increase by one percent, when the undecided voters are added to their total.
Edwards approval rating as Governor also falls at 48% approval, with 38% disapproval and 14% undecided.
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Wednesday night’s debate features Edwards, Abraham and Rispone once again because they were the only candidates who received more than 5% in a poll taken for Gray by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. In the poll, Edwards received 45%, Rispone 22% and Abraham 17%.
Of the respondents who didn’t pick one of the top three, 10% were undecided and 4% favored one of the three minor candidates: Oscar “Omar” Dantzler, a Democrat from Hammond; Gary Landrieu, an independent candidate from Metairie; and Patrick “Live Wire” Landry, a Republican from New Orleans.
The Mason-Dixon poll of 625 registered voters had a margin of error of 4% and was conducted from Oct. 1-4.
In another recent poll of 600 voters, Edwards had 51% versus 19% for Abraham and 19% for Rispone, 11% were undecided and 0% for the minor candidates. This poll was taken on Oct. 1, 2 and 7 by Florida-based pollster Verne Kennedy for a group of businessmen – including John Georges, who owns The Times-Picayune | The Advocate. It also had a 4% margin of error.
In this poll, Kennedy redistributed the undecided black voters to give Edwards 90% of their vote, to reflect historical voting patterns. This means that all 11% of the undecided voters in Kennedy’s poll are white. Kennedy thinks the three candidates will split that vote.
Even if Edwards doesn’t win outright on Saturday, Kennedy’s poll found encouraging information for the incumbent governor. He enjoys a 56%-30% favorable to unfavorable rating, compared to 33%-34% for Abraham and 35%-30% for Rispone.
It’s never too late to usher in the new Big Blue Wave. Let’s make it happen on Saturday. Click below to donate and get involved with Governor John Bel Edwards’ (D. LA) re-election campaign and Gwen Collins Greenup (D. LA) for Secretary of State: