KS-Sen: NYT/Siena Poll Confirms A Toss Up Race Between Barbara Bollier (D) & Roger Marshall (R)

Here’s the latest news today out of Kansas courtesy of the New York Times/Siena College latest poll:

President Trump, who won Kansas by more than 20 percentage points four years ago, maintains only a single-digit lead in the state, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday, an erosion of support that typifies his struggles in nearly every corner of the country as he fights for a second term.

With the clock ticking down before Election Day, the president leads Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic nominee, by seven percentage points, 48 to 41, among likely voters in a traditionally conservative state.

The abandonment of Mr. Trump by some voters whom Republicans could once rely on unfailingly has filtered down to the state’s Senate race, where the Democratic nominee, Barbara Bollier, trails the Republican, Roger Marshall, by just four percentage points, 46 to 42.

PPP’s poll yesterday confirmed a toss up race:

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that health care is shaping up to be a potentially decisive issue in the Kansas Senate race. A total of 90% of voters say it’s either the most important issue (22%), a very important issue (46%), or a somewhat important issue (23%) when deciding who to vote for in the Senate race –this includes 58% of both Republican and independent voters. Voters trust Barbara Bollier over Roger Marshall on key issues related to healthcare and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and disagree with key Republican positions on healthcare. A majority of 51% of voters say they do not think the ACA should be struck down by the courts, which is leading to trouble for Roger Marshall:

A plurality of 45% of voters say they’re less likely to vote for Marshall due to his vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act with no replacement.

46% say they trust Barbara Bollier more on the issue of health care (including 22% of Republicans) while 42% say they trust Roger Marshall more. They also trust Bollier more by a 10-point margin (52-42) on who will protect people with preexisting conditions.Additionally, voters express serious concerns over the consequences of striking down the ACA.

61% say that eliminating protections stopping insurance companies from denying coverageor raising the costs of care for 135 million Americans with pre-existing conditions is amajor concern, including 42% of Republicans. Just 22% are not concerned.

58% say they have major concerns about over twenty million Americans completely losingtheir health insurance coverage if the ACA is struck down, including 38% of Republicans,while only 24% have no concerns.

All this adds up to a very close Senate race, with Barbara Bollier and Roger Marshall each getting43% with Libertarian Jason Buckley at 5% and 9% of voters undecided. It’s important to note that the undecideds for Senate are voting for Trump by 54 points, suggesting Marshall has room to grow. But concerns over his record on health care are giving him trouble with independents and the party base, and illustrating the importance of the healthcare issue in the race overall.

Barbara Bollier leads Roger Marshall by 3.5 percentage points in a recent Poll conducted by VCreek/AMG.

If the election were held today 45.39% indicated they would vote for Bollier, 41.87% said they would vote for Marshall, 1.58% for the Libertarian candidate and 11.16% said they were undecided.

“This is a dynamic environment.  With well-funded campaigns and multiple outside groups involved, the top line numbers are likely to change before election day,” said VCreek/AMG’s JD Johannes.

Bollier has consolidated her base and incremental gains may be more difficult.  

“Bollier is in a strong position heading into advance voting with a clear GOTV universe,” Johannes said.  “If she maintains this lead her campaign can bank early votes making it even more of a challenge for Marshall to gain ground.”

Marshall is underperforming among Republicans drawing support from only 60% of Registered GOP respondents.

“The trend lines are similar to the 2018 Governor’s election,” Johannes said.  “A key difference is that Marshall has the resources behind him to potentially deliver enough precisely focused repetitions on message to gain ground among Republicans by defining himself favorably in contrast to Bollier.”

Friendly reminder:

A gigantic fundraising haul and outsized spending by a super PAC led by close allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) have alarmed Senate Democrats, who fear their candidates may be outspent down the stretch of the election despite record grassroots fundraising.
Senate Leadership Fund, the super political action committee controlled by McConnell allies, raised $92 million in September and began October with more than $103 million in the bank, according to a Federal Election Commission report filed Tuesday afternoon. Those huge sums, collected mostly from checks of donors who gave more than $1 million and in some cases have not revealed themselves, have helped Senate Republicans gain a financial edge in several key races.
Over the final days of the election, according to the Democrats tracking media buys, Republicans are set to outspend Democrats on TV in four key Senate races: Michigan, where Democrats are hopeful Sen. Gary Peters can defend his seat against Republican John James; Georgia, where Democrat Jon Ossoff is looking to knock off GOP Sen. David Perdue; Kansas, where Democratic state Sen. Barbara Bollier is battling Rep. Roger Marshall for an open seat; and in South Carolina, where Democrat Jaime Harrison is putting a scare into GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Click here to become a poll worker in Kansas.

Let’s keep up the momentum to flip Kansas Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Bollier, Biden and their fellow Kansas Democrats campaigns:

Biden-Harris

Barbara Bollier

Michelle De La Isla

Sharice Davids

Kansas Democratic Party