I haven’t been paying real close attention to the Georgia runoff polling. For one thing, pollsters and aggregation sites like FiveThirtyEight put me on a roller coaster of cozy reassurance and sheer fright for weeks before the November 3 election — and the kids in front of me on that coaster had just scarfed down a mess of corn dogs confected by someone who was presumably more E. coli than man. In other words, it was a bad scene, Snuffleupagus.
But when I stumbled across the latest poll from Trafalgar Group, it piqued my interest, because I know from my earlier FiveThirtyEight/Economist/Cook Political/Upshot/what-have-you obsession that Trafalgar was particularly sanguine about Donald Trump’s prospects prior to the election and was, well, wildly off base.
In fact, at one point, election maven Nate Silver called the pollster “crazy” in response to its apparent pro-Trump bias.
I'm not a Let's Delve Into The Crosstabs guy, but some of the shit here is just crazy. Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. Biden is not going to win 25% of Republicans. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points. https://t.co/YJJUHUxeE0 pic.twitter.com/lOjynoRJLZ— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 25, 2020