Kooky pro-GOP pollster Trafalgar actually has Warnock and Ossoff ahead

By: Aldous Pennyfarthing

On: December 30, 2020

In: , DavidPerdue, DonaldTrump, JonOssoff, KellyLoeffler, RaphaelWarnock, Trump

Tagged: actually, ahead, kooky, ossoff, pollster, trafalgar, warnock

I haven’t been paying real close attention to the Georgia runoff polling. For one thing, pollsters and aggregation sites like FiveThirtyEight put me on a roller coaster of cozy reassurance and sheer fright for weeks before the November 3 election — and the kids in front of me on that coaster had just scarfed down a mess of corn dogs confected by someone who was presumably more E. coli than man. In other words, it was a bad scene, Snuffleupagus.

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But when I stumbled across the latest poll from Trafalgar Group, it piqued my interest, because I know from my earlier FiveThirtyEight/Economist/Cook Political/Upshot/what-have-you obsession that Trafalgar was particularly sanguine about Donald Trump’s prospects prior to the election and was, well, wildly off base.

In fact, at one point, election maven Nate Silver called the pollster “crazy” in response to its apparent pro-Trump bias.

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I'm not a Let's Delve Into The Crosstabs guy, but some of the shit here is just crazy. Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. Biden is not going to win 25% of Republicans. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points. https://t.co/YJJUHUxeE0 pic.twitter.com/lOjynoRJLZ— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 25, 2020

And G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for The Economist, had this to say (second tweet):

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The thing about Trafalgar is that using their clearly biased data pushes our averages toward 50-50, incentivizing forecasters to use their data when they're scared of being wrong or want to hedge. But, like, if they're partisan hacks we shouldn't really be using their data.

— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) October 25, 2020

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We all know what happened, of course. Democratic cities stopped counting ballots in the middle of the night so they could sneak tens of thousands of fake ballots filled out by freebasing Bornean orangutans through secret passageways that they’d been working on for months while also conducting a series of hastily arranged seances so they could get the Dominion software passwords from Hugo Chavez.

And I’m sure George Soros had a role, too, because no Republican conspiracy theory is complete without George Soros. Let’s just say he brought the Pepsi and jalapeño kettle chips. Why not?

The point is, Trafalgar was wrong. Donald Trump lost, and those “shy” Trump voters weren’t nearly as shy or numerous as the pollster anticipated.

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Which brings us to this …

A recent poll shows Democratic U.S. Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock of Georgia leading the state's Republican incumbents, Senators David Purdue and Kelly Loeffler by a narrow margin. The poll was released shortly after Ossoff and Warnock both hammered their Republican opponents for not backing the congressional fight to give $2,000 checks to Americans struggling economically during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

The poll, conducted by The Trafalgar Group—a political and corporate market research polling firm based in Atlanta, Georgia—asked 1,022 likely Georgia voters who they planned to vote for.

In the race featuring Ossoff and Purdue, 48.6 percent said Ossoff and 46.4 percent said Purdue, a difference of 2.2 percent. In the race featuring Warnock and Loeffler, 47.1 percent said Warnock and 46.8 percent said Loeffler, a difference of 0.3 percent.

We can do this. If both these Dems win, we can shove Mitch McConnell in a closet (metaphorically or literally, I really don’t give a shit) for at least two years and actually get things done—including providing meaningful relief to Georgians and everyone else who needs it.

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So let’s do this.

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The future of our country is at stake. Without a friendly Senate, Joe Biden’s job will be exponentially harder. Let’s make it easier. Please.

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