I haven’t been paying real close attention to the Georgia runoff polling. For one thing, pollsters and aggregation sites like FiveThirtyEight put me on a roller coaster of cozy reassurance and sheer fright for weeks before the November 3 election — and the kids in front of me on that coaster had just scarfed down a mess of corn dogs confected by someone who was presumably more E. coli than man. In other words, it was a bad scene, Snuffleupagus

But when I stumbled across the latest poll from Trafalgar Group, it piqued my interest, because I know from my earlier FiveThirtyEight/Economist/Cook Political/Upshot/what-have-you obsession that Trafalgar was particularly sanguine about Donald Trump’s prospects prior to the election and was, well, wildly off base.

In fact, at one point, election maven Nate Silver called the pollster “crazy” in response to its apparent pro-Trump bias.


And G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for The Economist, had this to say (second tweet): 


— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) October 25, 2020


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We all know what happened, of course. Democratic cities stopped counting ballots in the middle of the night so they could sneak tens of thousands of fake ballots filled out by freebasing Bornean orangutans through secret passageways that they’d been working on for months while also conducting a series of hastily arranged seances so they could get the Dominion software passwords from Hugo Chavez.

And I’m sure George Soros had a role, too, because no Republican conspiracy theory is complete without George Soros. Let’s just say he brought the Pepsi and jalapeño kettle chips. Why not?

The point is, Trafalgar was wrong. Donald Trump lost, and those “shy” Trump voters weren’t nearly as shy or numerous as the pollster anticipated.