Joaquin Castro to Challenge Cornyn for Texas Senate, Could Boost Democratic Turnout in 2020

www.texasmonthly.com/…

Texas Monthly reports that Congressman Joaquin Castro will run against Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn in 2020 possibly boosting Hispanic turnout and putting that state into play for the Presidential race.

Castro, the Democratic congressman from San Antonio, “is all but certain” to enter next year’s race for U.S. Senate and take on incumbent Republican John Cornyn, a source familiar with Castro’s thinking said Thursday.

Joaquin’ twin brother, Julian a former mayor of San Antonio, has already announced his candidacy for President.

Of course, Democrats have often been disappointed in Texas when hopes for massive Hispanic turnout have failed to produce statewide victories.

The latest in these disappointments was last year when former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke  came a little short of defeating Ted Cruz (48.3% to 50.9%). O’Rourke has just announced his Presidential candidacy and there could be some hope that the excitement his 2018 Senate campaign could carry over should O’Rourke win the Democratic Presidential nomination.

O’Rourke did very well in the mostly white suburbs of the large urban centers. Turnout in 2018 for Hispanics in Texas certainly increased over 2014 but it was not enough to give him a win. Presidential level turnout could have put O’Rourke over the top.

Two Republican congressmen were defeated in Texas in 2018 and a number of others had the closest races of their lives due to improved Democratic turnout.

Trump’ approval in must win Texas is just under 50%.

statespoll.com/…

Nate Cohen has a piece in the New York Times telling why changing demographics might change the Lone Star State’s political complexion. Hispanics in Texas will outnumber white Anglos in total population in a couple of years. Add that to suburban white votes moving toward Democrats and it could make Texas very interesting in 2020.

www.nytimes.com/…

Changing Demographics of Texas
2010

2017

2020

(extrapolated)

White/Anglo 45.3% 42% 41%
Hispanic 37.6% 39.4% 40.2%
Black 11.8% 12.7% 13%
Asian 3.8% 5.0% 5.5%

www.census.gov/…