Inside Elections Shift Ratings of 11 Congressional Races Toward Democrats; Impeachment Not Hurting

insideelections.com/…

The nonpartisan site Inside Elections has made 12 changes in its ratings for 2020 US House elections, all but one in favor of Democrats.

Most of the districts are in the Midwest, two in Iowa, two in Illinois, and three in Minnesota. The Midwest has most of the swing states and is fairly likely to cast the deciding votes for President.

Inside Elections also takes note that two Republican held districts in North Carolina now favor the Democrats due to court ordered redistricting, but does not include NC CD-2 and NC CD-6 in the current rating changes. Cook’s Political Ratings has shifted both those districts to likely Democrat as of today.

Ratings Changes by Inside Election for 2020 US House
District PVI New Rating Old Rating Occupant
IL CD-13 (R +3) Tossup Tilt Rep Davis-R
IA CD-2 (D +1) Tilt Dem Tossup Open-D
MI CD-8 (R +4) Lean Dem Tilt Dem Slotkin-D
VA CD-2 (R +3) Lean Dem Tilt Dem Luria-D
IL CD-6 (R+2) Likely Dem Lean Dem Casten-D
MI CD-11 (R+4) Likely Dem Lean Dem Stevens-D
MN CD-2 (R +2) Likely Dem Lean Dem Craig-D
NH CD-1 (D +2) Likely Dem Lean Dem Pappas-D
IA CD-4 (R +11) Tilt Rep Lean Rep King-R
MN CD-1 (R +5) Tilt Rep Lean Rep Hagedorn-R
AZ CD-6 (R +9) Likely Rep Safe Rep Schweikert-R
MN CD-7 (R +12) Tilt Dem Lean Dem Peterson-D

On balance, the shifts speaks to the growing consensus that the Democrats should continue to hold control of the US House after 2020. Most of these changes represent a shoring up of Democratic incumbents. Impeachment seems to have had no widespread negative effect though it may not be helpful to Peterson in MN CD-7.

www.centerforpolitics.org/…



In 2018, Americans elected a 235-200 Democratic House majority. So that means Republicans need to win 18 more seats than they won in 2018 to win a House majority in 2020.

However, since the 2018 election, a few developments have effectively risen the bar for needed GOP gains. As noted above, Democrats seem likely to net at least a couple of seats because of the North Carolina remap. Also, Republicans are at least a small underdog in one of their current open seats — TX-23 — and Rep. Justin Amash (I, MI-3) left the party. So instead of Republicans having to win at least 18 currently-Democratic seats to win the House, the real number may be more like 21, and that doesn’t even include whatever effort they will need to exert in Amash’s seat.