Inside Elections Changes Ratings on 17 States Toward Biden

insideelections.com/…

Inside Elections is the latest political organization to shift its election ratings toward the Democratic candidate. In the Presidential race, it now rates the states of Arizona, Florida, and Wisconsin as “Tilt Democrat” as well as shifting Michigan and Pennsylvania to “Lean Democrat”. Georgia is a “Tossup” and Texas is “Tilt Republican”.

Analyzing a combination of partisan and nonpartisan, public and private, national and state-level polling, we’re changing our presidential rating in 17 states- all in favor of Biden. With those changes, Biden leads Trump in our Electoral College projection 319 to 187, when 270 is needed to win. There are some key states, such as North Carolina, where Trump doesn’t appear to be hemorrhaging voters at the same rate, but there just isn’t significant evidence that there is a single state getting better for Trump right now.

Inside Elections Presidential Ratings Changes

  1. Alaska from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
  2. Arizona from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
  3. Florida from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
  4. Georgia from Lean Republican to Toss-Up
  5. Iowa from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
  6. Kansas from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
  7. Maine (statewide) from Likely Democrat to Solid Democratic
        Maine’s 2nd District from Tilt Republican to Toss-Up
  8. Minnesota from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
  9. Michigan from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
  10. Missouri from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
  11. Montana from Solid Republican to Lean Republican
          Nebraska’s 2nd District from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
  12. Ohio from Likely Republican to Tilt Republican
  13. Pennsylvania from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
  14. South Carolina from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
  15. Texas from Likely Republican to Tilt Republican
  16. Utah from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
  17. Wisconsin from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic

Cook Political Ratings Shift 20 US House Races

cookpolitical.com/…

Earlier today, Cook Political Ratings moved 20 US House races toward the Democratic candidate. Six are in Democrat held seats that have become more safe, according to Cook. The others are Republican held and are now more likely to fall to the Democrats.

AZ-02: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) – Likely D to Solid D
CA-04: Tom McClintock (R) – Solid R to Likely R
CA-39: Gil Cisneros (D) – Lean D to Likely D
CO-06: Jason Crow (D) – Likely D to Solid D
IN-05: OPEN (Brooks) (R) – Lean R to Toss Up
KS-02: Steve Watkins (R) – Likely R to Lean R
MN-01: Jim Hagedorn (R) – Likely R to Lean R
MN-03: Dean Phillips (D) – Likely D to Solid D
NE-02: Don Bacon (R) – Lean R to Toss Up
NC-08: Richard Hudson (R) – Likely R to Lean R
NC-09: Dan Bishop (R) – Solid R to Likely R
OH-01: Steve Chabot (R) – Lean R to Toss Up
OH-12: Troy Balderson (R) – Solid R to Likely R
PA-08: Matt Cartwright (D) – Toss Up to Lean D
TX-03: Van Taylor (R) – Solid R to Likely R
TX-06: Ron Wright (R) – Solid R to Likely R
TX-21: Chip Roy (R) – Lean R to Toss Up
TX-25: Roger Williams (R) – Solid R to Likely R
VA-10: Jennifer Wexton (D) – Likely D to Solid D
WA-03: Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) – Likely R to Lean R

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Summary of Changes for July

centerforpolitics.org/…



On July 14, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball changed ratings on seven Republican states from safe for Trump to “Likely Republican”.

Electoral College ratings changes

July 14, 2020

State Old Rating New Rating
Alaska Safe Republican Likely Republican
Indiana Safe Republican Likely Republican
Kansas Safe Republican Likely Republican
Missouri Safe Republican Likely Republican
Montana Safe Republican Likely Republican
South Carolina Safe Republican Likely Republican
Utah Safe Republican Likely Republican

And on July 2,  Crystal Ball changed the ratings on 10 US House races, nine of them toward Democrats. The Governor’s race in Missouri was changed from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican on July 14. The Crystal Ball also changed Sonny Perdue’s Senate race in Georgia from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican on July 9.