Friday, January 22

in 2020, New Hampshire Dems prefer meteor strike over Trump 62% to 38%

Darn meteor sure gets lots of votes. What seems a quadrennial question more appropriate for the Rapture aficionado, Mike Pompeo, the prospect of another Trump victory now becomes even more eschatalogical.

The University of Massachusetts-Lowell’s (UMass Lowell) Center for Public Opinion recently conducted a poll that asked New Hampshire Democratic Primary likely voters whether they’d rather President Donald Trump win re-election or see “A giant meteor strikes the earth, extinguishing all human life.”

This poll was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell, designed and analyzed by the Center for Public Opinion and fielded by YouGov. Data was collected by YouGov, an online polling organization. Respondents were selected from YouGov and three other online panels. YouGov interviewed 453 eligible respondents; 409 were then matched down to a sample of 400 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education based on known characteristics of Democratic Party primary voters from the New Hampshire voter file and the 2018 Cooperative Congressional Election Study. The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender,race/ethnicity, and years of education. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles. The weights were then poststratified on past primary election behavior, and age x gender stratification of Democratic Primary voters from the New Hampshire voter file to produce the final weight.…

While the poll represents a small sampling of New Hampshire voters, it illustrates the degree of the party divide and contrasting feelings about Trump among Democrats.