IA-Sen: NYT, “Joni Ernst (R) and Donald Trump Could Both Be in Trouble in Iowa”

A great piece from The New York Times came out yesterday that highlights how Iowa has shaped up to become a competitive state for Democrats to win both the Presidential and U.S. Senate elections this year:

A poll published by The Des Moines Register and Mediacom on Monday showed Mr. Trump with only a one-point lead in the state over former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. The poll revealed a deep erosion of support for the president among white women without college degrees, voters who were key to his 2016 coalition across a swath of Midwestern swing states.

The same survey showed that Ms. Ernst, a rising star in her party in her first term, was narrowly trailing her little-known Democratic challenger.

Theresa Greenfield, the Democratic Senate nominee who emerged from a primary on June 2, is running primarily on a biography with parallels to the one Ms. Ernst used to introduce herself to Iowans six years ago: Both grew up on farms, and both have made promises to show Washington their scrappy values of hard work and self-reliance.

But Ms. Greenfield is turning Ms. Ernst’s celebrated anti-establishment catchphrase against her rival.

“Senator Ernst told Iowans in 2014 she was going to be independent and different and she was going to ‘make ’em squeal,’” Ms. Greenfield said in an interview, echoing a television ad six years ago in which Ms. Ernst said she would take a knife to federal spending the way she castrated hogs on the farm. “The bottom line is nobody’s squealing except Iowans.”

Ms. Ernst declined an interview request. But her advisers noted that Ms. Greenfield, a businesswoman and political newcomer, was riding the crest of more than $7 million in positive TV ads by liberal outside groups.

“This is Greenfield’s high-water mark,” said David Kochel, a senior adviser to the Ernst campaign. He promised that the Democrat would soon face a barrage of negativity. “Forty percent of Iowans don’t have an opinion of Theresa Greenfield,” he said. “We’re here to help.”

In the Des Moines Register poll, Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden 44 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, the latest in a wave of national and state polls showing the president’s prospects for re-election at their most precarious all year.

Although the road to the White House in November will not hinge on Iowa, with its meager six electoral votes, the tightness of the race in the state is an ominous sign for Mr. Trump in other Midwestern battlegrounds like Ohio and Wisconsin, which also have large electorates of older and rural voters, and white voters without college degrees.

Amid a pandemic that the president seeks to minimize, and widespread anti-police protests after the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Mr. Trump’s approval has slipped five points in Iowa since March, to 45 percent. Only 37 percent approve of the way he has handled the protests. The president retains strong support from evangelical voters and white men. But white working-class women preferred Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump in the Register poll, 53 percent to 35 percent.

The 18-point gap strikingly reversed the president’s advantage from 2016, when he carried white women without college diplomas by two points in Iowa. He won the state after it twice voted for President Barack Obama.

Give the whole piece a read and when you’re done let’s make sure the Blue Wave hit’s Iowa hard this year. Click below to donate and get involved with Greenfield, Biden and their fellow Iowa Democrats campaigns:

Theresa Greenfield

Joe Biden

Abby Finkenauer

Cindy Axne



Rita Hart

JD Scholten