This is how I see the outcome. Ohio will be close but ultimately will go to Trump. Florida, from what I’m hearing from Miami and Pinellas, will not be close. Texas will also be close, but given that the courts are refusing to disenfranchise the Houston drive-through voters, I believe Biden will take Texas. Georgia will also go his way.
For the Senate:
I’m being optimistic about Montana, but I think Bullock will pull it off. If Biden wins Texas, then Hegar also wins that Senate seat. Cunningham, Harrison, and Gideon all beat the Republican incumbents, and Ossoff makes it to over 50% in Georgia (Perdue chickening out of the 3rd debate was a big mistake). The other Georgia seat will go a runoff, but it will not change the balance in the Senate.
There is a chance Espy could take Mississippi, and a better one that Bollier could win Kansas, but I don’t know quite enough about them to call them.