Typically, a Republican incumbent in Georgia should be a shoo-in for re-election, especially in a special election. Not this time. Early voting has been enormous in Georgia, breaking all records. By Dec. 7, over a million absentee ballots had been requested. Neither of these statistics bode well for Republicans. That party’s voters tend to vote on the day of the election, but historically, special elections are dominated by affluent suburban voters—not rural voters. The Republican lean in these areas shifted Democratic quite bigly in November, and that’s not going to change on Jan. 5.

Even worse, David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler are uniquely unpopular incumbents, since they both used their positions to significantly profit off of their constituents’ pandemic painFinally, and worst of all, there’s Donald Trump.