More news out of Georgia today. First, the main Senate Race:
* Among voters who strongly disapprove of GA Governor Brian Kemp’s response to COVID, Ossoff leads Perdue 17:1.
* Among voters who strongly approve of Kemp’s response to COVID, Perdue leads Ossoff 6:1.
* Among independents, Perdue leads Ossoff by 12 points, with an asterisk that 10% of independents say they will vote for someone other than Perdue or Ossoff.
* Perdue and Ossoff tie in the suburbs. Ossoff leads 2:1 in urban parts of the state. Perdue leads 2:1 in rural GA.
Next, the Special Senate Election:
* If Collins finishes atop Warnock on 11/03/20, the Isakson seat will stay Red, though who sits in it won’t be known for 75 days.
* If Warnock finishes atop Collins, Loeffler and Warnock in a January runoff potentially decide who controls the Senate when it convenes next year.
* Warnock gets 1 of 3 black votes and it is unknowable how many of those votes will materialize in a pandemic.
* Loeffler’s support is male, white, preoccupied with immigration, concentrated in Northwest GA, and “certain” to vote.
* Collins’ support is younger, Latino, wealthier, worried about the economy, and concentrated in Southern and Coastal GA.
* If support for Democrat Matt Lieberman (today at 13%) and/or Democrat Ed Tarver (today at 3%) collapses, Warnock’s chance to advance goes up.
And the Presidential Election:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 11, 2020
* At the top of the ticket, Biden leads by 14 among women, Trump leads by 12 among men, a 26-point Gender Gap.
* Trump leads 3:1 among GA’s white voters; Biden leads 8:1 among GA’s black voters; Biden leads among both Hispanics and Asians.
* Biden voters are focused on health care, COVID, and race relations. Trump voters are focused on the economy and immigration.
* Of likely GA voters who know someone with COVID, Biden leads by 12. Of voters who do not know a COVID patient, Trump leads by 12.
* Independents break ever-so-slightly for Trump, with an asterisk that 7% of independents say they will vote for someone other than Trump or Biden.
* Moderates break 2:1 for Biden.
* Despite hi-profile efforts by The Lincoln Project and others to siphon GOP voters, just 5% today crossover. 91% of Republicans dance with who brung them.
We can absolutely win both these races. We don’t have fundraising numbers yet for Warnock but Ossoff just posted his fundraising numbers for July:
Senate candidate Jon Ossoff amassed nearly $3 million in the month of July for his bid to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. David Perdue, thanks partly to a cash infusion after the incumbent’s campaign manipulated the Democrat’s image in a digital ad.
Ossoff said Tuesday he raised about $1 million in the five days after Perdue’s campaign was forced to delete a digital ad that enlarged Ossoff’s nose, which triggered accusations that he was evoking anti-Semitic tropes.
In all, the campaign said it received nearly 28,000 contributions from first-time donors to help him collect about $2.9 million in July.
So let’s keep up the momentum and flip Georgia Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Ossoff, Warnock, Biden and their fellow Georgia Democrats campaigns: