More news out of Georgia today. First, the main Senate Race:
* Among voters who strongly disapprove of GA Governor Brian Kemp’s response to COVID, Ossoff leads Perdue 17:1.
* Among voters who strongly approve of Kemp’s response to COVID, Perdue leads Ossoff 6:1.
* Among independents, Perdue leads Ossoff by 12 points, with an asterisk that 10% of independents say they will vote for someone other than Perdue or Ossoff.
* Perdue and Ossoff tie in the suburbs. Ossoff leads 2:1 in urban parts of the state. Perdue leads 2:1 in rural GA.
Next, the Special Senate Election:
* If Collins finishes atop Warnock on 11/03/20, the Isakson seat will stay Red, though who sits in it won’t be known for 75 days.
* If Warnock finishes atop Collins, Loeffler and Warnock in a January runoff potentially decide who controls the Senate when it convenes next year.
* Warnock gets 1 of 3 black votes and it is unknowable how many of those votes will materialize in a pandemic.
* Loeffler’s support is male, white, preoccupied with immigration, concentrated in Northwest GA, and “certain” to vote.
* Collins’ support is younger, Latino, wealthier, worried about the economy, and concentrated in Southern and Coastal GA.
* If support for Democrat Matt Lieberman (today at 13%) and/or Democrat Ed Tarver (today at 3%) collapses, Warnock’s chance to advance goes up.
And the Presidential Election:
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 11, 2020
* At the top of the ticket, Biden leads by 14 among women, Trump leads by 12 among men, a 26-point Gender Gap.
* Trump leads 3:1 among GA’s white voters; Biden leads 8:1 among GA’s black voters; Biden leads among both Hispanics and Asians.
* Biden voters are focused on health care, COVID, and race relations. Trump voters are focused on the economy and immigration.
* Of likely GA voters who know someone with COVID, Biden leads by 12. Of voters who do not know a COVID patient, Trump leads by 12.
* Independents break ever-so-slightly for Trump, with an asterisk that 7% of independents say they will vote for someone other than Trump or Biden.
* Moderates break 2:1 for Biden.
* Despite hi-profile efforts by The Lincoln Project and others to siphon GOP voters, just 5% today crossover. 91% of Republicans dance with who brung them.
We can absolutely win both these races. We don’t have fundraising numbers yet for Warnock but Ossoff just posted his fundraising numbers for July:
Senate candidate Jon Ossoff amassed nearly $3 million in the month of July for his bid to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. David Perdue, thanks partly to a cash infusion after the incumbent’s campaign manipulated the Democrat’s image in a digital ad.
Ossoff said Tuesday he raised about $1 million in the five days after Perdue’s campaign was forced to delete a digital ad that enlarged Ossoff’s nose, which triggered accusations that he was evoking anti-Semitic tropes.
In all, the campaign said it received nearly 28,000 contributions from first-time donors to help him collect about $2.9 million in July.
So let’s keep up the momentum and flip Georgia Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Ossoff, Warnock, Biden and their fellow Georgia Democrats campaigns:
The Politicus is a collaborative political community that facilitates content creation directly on the site. Our goal is to make the political conversation accessible to everyone.Any donations we receive will go into writer outreach. That could be advertising on Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit or person-to-person outreach on College campuses. Please help if you can: