Last updated on October 29, 2020
Big news today out of Georgia courtesy of Monmouth University’s latest poll. First, the presidential race:
The race for Georgia’s electoral votes remains very close, but Joe Biden has gained ground on Donald Trump in the latest Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Democrats have also improved their standing in the two U.S. Senate races, erasing a GOP lead in the regularly scheduled contest and leaving two Republicans fighting for a spot in the special election runoff.
Among all registered voters in Georgia, Biden is supported by 50% and Trump is supported by 45%. Another 2% say they will vote for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 2% are undecided. These results represent a small swing in the Democrat’s favor, but the numbers are not statistically different from Trump’s single point edge last month (47% to 46% for Biden) or the tied result in July (47% each).
Similarly, the shifts in Monmouth’s likely voter models+ are not statistically significant, but they do show Biden with a nominal lead for the first time. In a high turnout model, Biden has 50% support and Trump has 46%. Trump led in this model by 2 points in September and one point in July. The race is tighter using a lower turnout model at 50% Biden and 48% Trump, whereas the incumbent led by 3 to 5 points in this model in prior polls. Trump won Georgia by five points in 2016.
More than half (58%) of registered voters in Georgia report having already cast their ballots. Biden leads among this group by 55% to 43%. Trump has a 48% to 44% edge, though, among those who have yet to vote. When the sample is put into different likely voter models, Trump pulls further ahead among the vote that is still outstanding – 53% to 41% for Biden in a high turnout scenario and 59% to 36% at a lower level of turnout.
Second, the main Senate race:
Republican incumbent David Perdue has lost his lead in Georgia’s regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election. Among all registered voters, Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff is backed by 49% and 46% support Perdue. Libertarian Shane Hazel earns 2% and 2% are undecided. Perdue led by 6 points among registered voters in prior Monmouth polls (48% to 42% in September and 49% to 43% in July). Among voters who have already cast their ballots, Ossoff holds a 54% to 43% lead. Among those yet to vote, Perdue has a 51% to 42% edge.
The race is close among likely voters. Ossoff holds an insignificant 2-point lead over Perdue (49% to 47%) in a high turnout scenario while the race is virtually tied using a lower turnout model (49% to 48%). However, just one month ago, Perdue held anywhere from a 5-point (high turnout) to 8-point (low turnout) lead depending on the likely voter model.
And finally, the special Senate race:
The other Senate seat will be decided by a special election, featuring a blanket primary with 20 listed candidates on the November ballot. Democrat Raphael Warnock has pulled into a clear lead, with 41% support among registered voters, up from 21% in September and just 9% in July. Warnock’s chief Democratic rival Matt Lieberman has 4% support, down from 11% last month and 14% in the summer.
The battle for second place is very close between two Republicans. Incumbent Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed to the seat earlier this year, has 21% support and Congressman Doug Collins has 18%. This is similar to their standing in September (23% Loeffler and 22% Collins) and July (26% Loeffler and 20% Collins). The current placement of the top candidates in these registered voter results – Warnock, followed by Loeffler and Collins – is nearly identical in Monmouth’s likely voter models.
“Loeffler and Collins are now battling it out for a spot in the runoff. It may come down to who is seen as the stronger Trump loyalist among Republican voters,” said Murray.
Overall, 33% of Georgia voters say Loeffler is more supportive of President Trump while 12% say Collins is the bigger Trump booster. Another 31% say both are equally supportive of Trump. Among Trump backers in the presidential contest, 34% say Loeffler is the stronger Trump supporter while 19% say it is Collins, and 30% say both are equally supportive.
A runoff election will be held between the two highest vote earners if no candidate achieves an outright majority next week. Warnock currently holds a head-to-head lead against both Republicans among registered voters – 49% to 41% against Loeffler and 51% to 39% against Collins. The runoff will almost certainly see lower turnout than next week’s general election. The race is closer among those most likely to vote in a January runoff, but the Democrat maintains a lead – either 51% Warnock to 45% Loeffler or 52% Warnock to 45% Collins.
A group aligned with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is spending an additional $10 million through next week’s election to boost Democratic U.S. Senate candidates Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.
Majority Forward said Monday it is adding more than $5 million to a program it launched in September geared toward mobilizing voters of color to back the two Democrats challenging Republican U.S. Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.
And the group’s super PAC, Senate Majority, will spend another $4.7 million on digital ads highlighting Warnock’s health care stance and former President Barack Obama’s endorsement of both candidates.
Let’s keep up the momentum to flip Georgia Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Warnock, Ossoff, Biden and their fellow Georgia Democrats campaigns:
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