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GA-Sen A & B: Monmouth Poll Has Biden & Trump Tied In Georgia & Tight Senate Races

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Monmouth University released their Georgia poll today. They found that both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied 47/47 but I wanted to bring attention to the polling in both the U.S. Senate races in Georgia:

In the regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election, Republican incumbent David Perdue holds a 49% to 43% lead over Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff. Libertarian Shane Hazel earns 1% and 7% are undecided. Looking at coattail effects, Perdue has the support of 92% of Trump voters while 5% back Ossoff and 1% are undecided. Perdue picks up 8% of the Biden vote with 83% of this group backing Ossoff and a larger 9% who are undecided. Likely voter models show similar results under either high turnout (50% Perdue and 43% Ossoff) or low turnout (51% Perdue and 43% Ossoff) scenarios.

The state’s other senate seat will also be on the November ballot. This special election will be a blanket primary featuring 20 listed candidates, including six Republicans and eight Democrats. Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed to the seat earlier this year, leads the pack with 26% support, followed by fellow Republican Doug Collins at 20%. Leading Democrats include Matt Lieberman (14%), Raphael Warnock (9%), and Ed Tarver (5%), while Libertarian Brian Slowinski earns 3%. Other candidates were not specifically named but get 5% support as a group. Another 18% of registered voters are undecided. The results for the poll’s likely voter models are nearly identical to these numbers.

Among Trump voters, 47% support Loeffler and 40% back Collins, who currently represents the 9th Congressional District. The president has not endorsed a candidate in this race but has made positive remarks about both leading candidates. Among Biden voters, 28% support Lieberman, the son of a former U.S. Senator and nominee for Vice President, 19% support Warnock, pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, 9% back Tarver, a former U.S. Attorney and state legislator, and 7% say they support a candidate not named in the poll. Just 8% of Trump voters are undecided in the special senate race but a larger 23% of Biden supporters are unsure of how they will vote.

“Republicans were unsuccessful in working out a deal between their top contenders, but Democrats seem to face an even messier prospect despite Warnock’s establishment support. The upshot is that this seat will remain in GOP hands unless Democratic support shifts toward one candidate. Of course, this is the most volatile statewide race so it has the most room for movement,” said Murray.

If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote in November, the top two vote earners will advance to a January 2021 runoff.  It is worth noting that 83% of registered voters are certain of how they will vote in the presidential contest and 77% are certain of their choice in the Perdue-Ossoff race, but only 49% are certain about their vote in the special election.

So I know from a first glance this polling looks a little disappointing but here’s the breakdown of the 402 respondents interviewed between July 23-27 in this poll:

Party Primary History:

37% Republican

31% Other/None

32% Democrat

Self-Reported Party

38% Republican

33% Independent

28% Democrat

Also note that 9% of Biden supporters are still undecided in the Ossoff-Perdue race. That’s very similar to Morning Consult’s poll posted yesterday showing Perdue leading Ossoff 45-42 with 18% undecided Independent voters. In that poll, Ossoff has 90% of Democratic voters while Perude had 88% of Republican voters. Also, in PPP’s Georgia poll posted yesterday, Biden beats Trump 46/45. Here are the breakdowns of the 722 respondents from the July 23-24 poll:

37% Democrat

41% Republican

22% Independent

With all those undecideds leaning towards Biden, Ossoff has a great chance to win his race. As For. Rev. Raphael Warnock, it’s clear that him and the DSCC need to spend more money advertising in this race. Especially if we want someone who will push for keep up the fight for Rep. John Lewis (D. GA) legacy in the Senate. Here’s a section from Rev. Warnock’s interview with Democracy Now!:

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: And, Reverend Warnock, ironically, the cause for which John Lewis fought for for all his life, especially of voting rights, is now — Georgia has become a ground zero for the repression of voting rights. Could you talk somewhat about the problems, the enormous problems, of long lines and faulty voting machines and poorly trained staff of the recent primary? But also, your church is in a lawsuit around voter suppression in Georgia. Could you talk about that, as well?

REV. RAPHAEL WARNOCK: Yes, all of that is correct. The irony of this moment is that even as we celebrate and honor John Lewis, the patron saint of voting rights, he hailed from the state which in many instances is ground zero for voter suppression. We are still fighting against voter suppression in Georgia, but not only in Georgia, all across this country.

In 2013, the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, which is a law, in a real sense, dipped in the blood of John Lewis and Hosea Williams and so many others who fought the good fight. And even as we celebrate him, it has not been reauthorized. The last time this bill was reauthorized, George W. Bush was president. It passed the United States Senate 96 to 0.

But in recent years voting has become increasingly a partisan issue, and there are those who are not embarrassed by making it difficult for people to vote. And so, John Lewis fought for this to the very last of his strength and breath. The reauthorization of the Voting Rights Act passed the U.S. Congress. I’m running against someone right now for the U.S. Senate who voted against it, Congressman Doug Collins. But it passed the House, made it to Mitch McConnell’s desk, and that’s where it’s sitting, on Mitch McConnell’s desk, who stood the other day and offered pious platitudes about the greatness of John Lewis, yet the bill that carries John Lewis’s blood is sitting on his desk. If he really wants to honor John Lewis, he ought to pass the bill. He ought to put it up for a vote. That’s how we honor John Lewis.

There is much conversation about changing the name of the bridge, and we ought to do that — he deserves it — but if we change the name of the bridge but people are still struggling to exercise their basic American franchise, then we’re still in trouble. And so, in this moment, in this hour, when we celebrate this great patriot who helped America to live into the fullness of its democracy, let’s reauthorize the bill, that now bears his name.

We can pull off some big wins in Georgia but we need to get ready to do just that. Click below to donate and get involved with Ossoff, Warnock, Biden and their fellow Georgia Democrats campaigns:

Jon Ossoff

Raphael Warnock

Joe Biden

Lucy McBath

Carolyn Bourdeaux

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