In case you missed this, Fox News has a new poll out:
Former Vice President Joe Biden bests President Donald Trump by nine points in a 2020 ballot test, in the first Fox News Poll since Biden became the de facto Democratic nominee.
In a head-to-head presidential matchup, Biden is up by 49-40 percent over Trump, a lead that is outside the poll’s margin of sampling error. Another 11 percent would vote for someone else or are undecided. Last month, Biden was ahead by 49-41 percent.
The race remains a nine-point advantage for Biden over Trump when looking only at those voters extremely interested in the election (52-43 percent) and the former vice president has an eight-point edge in battleground states (48-40 percent).
However, Biden’s advantage grows to 25 points, 57-32 percent, in close counties (where Hillary Clinton and Trump were within 10 points in 2016).
“Since our last poll, Biden has won enough delegates to make him the presumptive Democratic nominee, but the horserace has not budged. This might be a bad sign for Biden since he has received extensive and largely positive news coverage over the last month,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, whose firm conducts the poll with Republican Daron Shaw.
“But there appears to be a modest rallying to the flag effect in response to the pandemic that is rewriting our political and social landscape in still unknown ways.”
In the matchup, Biden is the choice among liberals, non-whites, moderates, suburban women, and voters ages 65 and over.
Trump leads among conservatives, white evangelical Christians, those who attend religious services regularly, white men, and whites without a college degree.
Meanwhile, by a three-to-one margin, voters like Biden’s commitment to choose a woman as his running mate. Overall, 63 percent approve of his promise to pick a female, while 20 percent disapprove (17 percent unsure). There is no gender gap, but voters under age 45 are 10 points more likely than those ages 45 and over to approve (70 vs. 60 percent). Among Democrats, approval climbs to 86 percent.
The Fox News poll showed Elizabeth Warren as the top choice for Biden’s VP choice. This is the second poll to come out this week to show Biden ahead of Trump nationally. Monmouth University’s latest poll:
Joe Biden holds a negligible 3 point lead over Donald Trump in the race forpresident, according to a national Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll.The probable Democratic nominee has a larger edge, though, among voters in keyswing counties across the country. The poll also finds that fewer voters saytheir financial situation is improving compared to a year ago, although mostsay it is stable for now.
Biden has the support of 48% of registered voters and Trump has the support of 45% if the presidential election was today. Another 3% say they would vote for an independent candidate and 4% are undecided. Biden has an 89% to 6% advantage over Trump among Democratic voters, while Trump has a similar 90% to 7% lead among Republicans. Independents split 45% for Trump and 44% for Biden.
“The race looks tight right now between Trump and the probableDemocratic nominee. But as we learned in 2016, the outcome will be determinedby the Electoral College rather than the national popular vote. The pollresults suggest Biden may actually be starting out with an advantage in crucialswing areas of the country,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independentMonmouth University Polling Institute.
In the nearly 2,500 “red” counties that Trump won by an average of 36 points in 2016, his current standing for this year’s election is similar at 63% who support him and 32% who support Biden. In the 360 “blue” counties that Hillary Clinton won by about 35 points on average, 60% of voters support Biden and 30% back Trump. In approximately 300 “swing” counties where the margin of victory was less than ten points for either candidate – accounting for about one-fifth of the total U.S. electorate – 50% back Biden compared with 41% who support Trump. In 2016, Clinton won the cumulative vote in these counties by a single percentage point.
The poll also finds that Biden has a substantial 56% to 34% advantageover Trump among voters under 35 years old. Trump has a 53% to 40% lead among voters aged 35 to 54, while Biden hasa small edge of 50% to 46% among voters aged 55 and older. Other keydemographic groups break along typical partisan lines. Biden has overwhelming support among women ofcolor (77% to 14%), strong support among white women with a college degree (63%to 33%), and sizable support among men of color (53% to 39%). Trump holds strong leads among white womenwithout a college degree (66% to 29%) and white men without a college degree(58% to 34%). He has a smaller edge among white men who are college graduates(51% to 44%).
In other Biden-related news, Biden held his CNN Virtual Town Hall today:
From a remote feed in his home in Wilmington, Delaware, Biden said he starts his mornings with back-to-back briefings on the health and economic fallout of the pandemic — and that he is regularly speaking with governors who are managing their states' responses as the numbers of confirmed cases grow beyond 100,000 nationwide.Biden was critical of President Donald Trump's actions, saying his administration has moved too slowly to deploy needed resources to hospitals.But he offered an uplifting message — one in tune with his campaign's core theme — about the soul of the nation being on display in Americans' reaction to the crisis.
“We are seeing the soul of America now. Take a look at what is happening. Everywhere you look, you see people reaching out to help people,” Biden said. “This is an incredible nation. The American people are generous, decent, good, fair, bright, and it makes you so proud to be an American.”