In looking for recent polls on impeachment I found this discussion from fivethirtyeight on whether the American people Trump to be impeached from March 13 (between the Barr report which the media ate up and the Mueller report). It is an interesting discussion but here is the key exchange for Trump impeachment.

nrakich: Yeah, the Mueller report could change the calculus. Not every poll finds that impeachment lacks public support. In fact, it’s downright popular if the condition is that Mueller found that Trump did something wrong.

The Washington Post/Schar School found that if the Mueller report finds that Trump obstructed justice, Americans would support impeachment 65 percent to 29 percent. That includes 68 percent of independents.

And YouGov/The Economist found that Americans would support impeachment by a lesser, but still healthy, margin — 47 percent to 31 percent — if Mueller finds Trump obstructed justice. Among independents, it’s 38 percent to 31 percent.

perry: But Nathaniel, once Trump dubs the obstruction charge “fake news” and Fox News rallies around that idea, wouldn’t the 40 percent of people who seem to support Trump no matter what keep on supporting him? Don’t you think these polls will change (favorably towards Trump)?

nrakich: That 65-29 split in the Washington Post poll is probably too good to be true for progressives. But I do buy the notion that impeachment could go from generally unpopular to generally popular if Mueller’s report is bad enough for Trump.

There are two recent polls from reliable polling outfits (Washington Post, YouGov).  These polls are speculative (asking about what may happen in the future) but my guess is there were no polls at the time to contradict or the fivethirtyeight people would have mentioned them (not because they have an agenda but because they are good). There should be more polls being conducted on impeachment right now. I will be interested in what they say but right, as Mueller has proven not one but ten counts of obstruction, these should be the baseline of discussion. They are not. They have been disappeared.

Much of the media and some dems are building a narrative based on polls that are now irrelevant. They are saying with absolute certainty that the American people are against impeachment. That you must “educate” the American people (this is so god damned condescending — if you give the American people unlike Steny Hoyer many if not most will make good decisions).  In other words the media and some dems are building a false narrative to break Trump. Once a narrative is created it is very hard to combat (ask Hillary Clinton about this).

My question is why. My guess is many in the media have this information. If not they are incompetent. Yet they are creating a narrative that goes against it to protect Trump. The narrative many change with new polls. The media promoted the Barr narrative for a month. But right now this is the best information we have.

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