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Educated Voters Have Big Gains in Early Voting for VA and NJ

insights.targetsmart.com/…

Early voting in both Virginia and New Jersey is running far ahead of the pace of 2015 with well educated voters making up a considerably larger share than they did in the comparable year of 2015.

In Virginia, where there are elections to determine whether Democrats will take control of both houses of the legislature, early voting has reached 90,000 versus 40,000 in 2015, as of 10/30/2019. The 2017 election is not comparable because of the governor’s and other statewide races, but it was at 124,000 by this stage in 2017.

The percentage of early voters who are Caucasian and have some college has increase from 38.5% to 42.4%. The percentage of less educated white voters has plummeted from 50.2 in 2015 to 43.6, so far. The percentage of early voters who are African American has increased from 8% to 8.7% in this period of early voting.

Rural voter participation in early voting has also dropped as a percentage. In 2015 it was 37.0% of the state total as compared to 29.6% this year. Urban voters are making up a little less of the total, dropping from 30.1% to 29.7%. Suburbanites make up the difference. They accounted for 32.8% in 2015 and 40.8% this year.

For a positive outlook of Virginia legislative races:  www.bing.com/…

Early voting in New Jersey was 150,000 on 10/29. At a similar time in 2015, it was 97,000. Better educated white voters in New Jersey made up 30.5% of the early voters in 2015 but make up 39.3% this year. Less educated white voters fell from 56.6% in 2015 to 46.9% so far in the 2019 legislative elections. New Jersey also had statewide races to boost turnout in 2017.

Since New Jersey has party registration, we can see that voters registered as Democrats are outpacing the percentage of early votes they cast at this stage in 2015. Democrats had 48.7% of the early votes in 2015, 49.7% in 2017, and 50.5% so far this year. Republicans cast 34.6% of the votes in 2015, 32.8% in 2017, and 34.1% in early votes this year.

A reasonable conclusion as that better educated voters are more eager to vote this year which should be great for Democrats, at least in Virginia and New Jersey.

Polls for the governor races this month for Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana are here.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

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