Last updated on August 23, 2020
A poll by Global Strategy Group shows Joe Biden has a 47% to 45% lead in Texas over Trump. Trump won the Lone Star State by 9 points in 2016.
Texas presidential polls have been variable with YouGov and Trafalgar Group showing Trump with a lead of six or seven points and with Global Strategies Group and Morning Consult showing Biden with a one or two point advantage.
GSG is rated as “B/C” pollster by website 538. This poll was taken for Democratic candidate for Texas Railroad Commissioner Chrysta Castañeda.
The Texas political terrain has become much more favorable for Democrats as Trump trails by two after winning statewide by nine points in 2016. Joe Biden has a two-point lead over Trump in the race for president (47% Biden/45% Trump), including a six-point lead among self-identified independents (37% Biden/31% Trump). This is driven by Trump’s acute unpopularity among independents (33% fav/55% unfav). Republican shave just a two-point lead on the generic ballot for state representative (44% Democrat/46% Republican) and Democrats are more motivated to vote this November (79% of Democrats are extremely motivated to votes. 75% of Republicans who are extremely motivated to vote).
Global Strategy Group conducted a multichannel survey (live telephone as well as online voter file matched panel) of 700 likely general election voters statewide in Texas August 11-13, 2020. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/- 3.7%. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater.
538 Analyst Says Biden Has Strong National Lead
Nathaniel Rakich, election analyst for political site FiveThirtyEight, on Thursday shared a breakdown of polling averages 75 days out from the presidential election going back to the 1976 election of Jimmy Carter. Biden currently leads Trump by an average of 8.4 points. The last time a Democratic candidate had a comparable lead over their GOP opponent was in 1992, when former President Bill Clinton was running for his first team with a lead of about 8.5 points two and a half months out from the election.
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