Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted its ratings on another eight US House races. Five Republican held seats have moved toward the Democratic candidate. Two Democratic seats have gone from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat”, and WI CD-3 has been shifted the other way from “Safe Democrat” to “Likely Democrat”.
On July 2, Crystal Ball changed 11 other House races, all but one in favor of the Democrat. Larry Sabato says Democrats are now about as likely to gain US House seats as lose them but the net number of changes may be small, likely leaving the Democrats in control.
|Member/District||Old Rating||New Rating|
|French Hill (R, AR-2)||Likely Republican||Leans Republican|
|IA-2 Open (Loebsack, D)||Toss-up||Leans Democratic|
|Richard Hudson (R, NC-8)||Likely Republican||Leans Republican|
|Xochitl Torres Small (D, NM-2)||Toss-up||Leans Democratic|
|Mike Turner (R, OH-10)||Safe Republican||Likely Republican|
|Joe Wilson (R, SC-2)||Safe Republican||Likely Republican|
|Chip Roy (R, TX-21)||Leans Republican||Toss-up|
|Ron Kind (D, WI-3)||Safe Democratic||Likely Democratic|
That speaks to a larger observation about the House map: In all likelihood, some Democratic incumbents will lose, but no Democratic incumbent is an outright underdog as of now — even members who hold seats that Trump won by double digits in 2018, like Horn or Reps. Joe Cunningham (D, SC-1), Collin Peterson (D, MN-7), Max Rose (D, NY-11), and Xochitl Torres Small (D, NM-2).
In fact, some of these members have a decent chance to win. One of them, Torres Small, moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in this update.