After he leaves office, Trump will try to stonewall a prosecution of him but eventually he will lie to prosecutors — he won’t be able to help himself.
(CNN)The poll matches the last poll from Marquette, which also had Biden up by 3 points in Wisconsin.What's the point: One of the big questions when we look at national polls is whether or not they're an accurate representation of what is going on at the state level. One of the easiest ways to check is to compare state poll results to the past presidential vote in a given state. I did so for all telephone polls that called cell phones since the beginning of April.When we average out these state polls, they suggest that Biden's running about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton's final margin.In other words, the state level polls suggest that Biden has a national lead of around 8 points.That's actually a little greater than the 6.6 points Biden has in the high quality national polling average taken during the same period. I should note that if we weight the average of state polls to each state's population, we get a margin just north of that 6.6 point mark. (Weighting by population leaves us somewhat more susceptible to outlier polls, as we have fewer polls from the most populated states.)EIther way, all methods agree that Biden has a fairly sizable national advantage.[…]
Biden would still be ahead, even with a 2016 sized mishap.The polls underestimated Trump by 1 point (RealClearPolitics) or 2 points (FiveThirtyEight) in the aggregate of the states we currently have polling from. Applying that 2016 bias to our current data, Biden would have a 6- to 7-point lead nationally.Concentrating on just the competitive states, the polls undersold Trump by 2 points (RealClearPolitics) or 3 points (FiveThirtyEight). If the polls in the competitive states were off by as much as they were at the end in 2016, Biden would still be ahead in states like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 18, 2020
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) May 14, 2020
— Jennifer Rubin (@JRubinBlogger) May 18, 2020
— Laurence Tribe (@tribelaw) May 18, 2020
— Molly Jong-FastÃ°ÂÂÂ¡ (@MollyJongFast) May 18, 2020
— Rolling Stone (@RollingStone) May 18, 2020
Here’s the thing: Trump may well be taking hydroxychloroquine. We have no evidence to the contrary. But he has so blatantly lied about so many things, so the fact that he says he’s taking it is almost entirely irrelevant to the truth.
— Michelle Goldberg (@michelleinbklyn) May 18, 2020
— Hardeep Matharu (@Hardeep_Matharu) May 15, 2020
Our need for lies may help us get through the day, but eventually they will be confronted with a truth that has to be borne. T.S. Eliot was right, “humankind cannot bear very much reality”. Sometimes there is no option but to look it straight in the eye – lest we cause much greater harm than that which we desperately seek to shield ourselves from.