Cook Political Report is shifting its ratings of the key states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from “Tossup” to “Lean Democrat”. Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district is also moved to “Lean Democrat” and Georgia is now a considered a “Tossup” state.
- Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
- Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the safer Likely Democratic category.
- Georgia has joined Arizona, North Carolina and Florida in the Toss Up column, although, at this point, Biden would be slightly favored to win at least Arizona and Florida.
- Maine’s 2nd district has moved from Likely Republican to a more competitive Lean Republican.
These moves alone push Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold (to 279).
Further the Cook Report says based on polling and other factors the election of 2020 is starting to look like a “Democratic tsunami” on every level though things might, of course, change.
In talking with strategists on both sides this last week, it’s also clear that Trump is dragging Republican congressional candidates with him as well.
Plugged in strategists on both sides tell us that Trump is running behind in districts he easily carried in 2016. As one GOP strategist told us this week, “I’d be surprised if any House GOP challenger is able to outperform Trump — they are tied to him.” Meanwhile, Democratic Senate candidates — even those in second and third-tier races — are pulling in eye-popping second-quarter fundraising totals.
Democrats can be optimistic for reasons other than polling including having strong candidates in key races that are raising a great deal of money.
Kansas Democrat Barbara Bollier raised more in a three-month period than any candidate in Kansas history for federal, state or local office, her campaign announced Wednesday.
Bollier’s U.S. Senate campaign took $3.7 million in contributions from April through June, a quarterly record in the state. The Mission Hills doctor and state senator hopes to be the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate race in the GOP-leaning state since 1932. Her campaign said it has more than $4 million cash on hand.