Cook Report Moves 2 US House Races to Tossup, AZ CD-6 and MO CD-2

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Cook Political Report has changed its ratings on five US House races, four in the direction of the Democratic candidate.

Kansas CD-2 became more likely to remain Republican after incumbent Steve Watkins-R lost his primary. Watkins was charged with voter fraud after he listed a UPS store as his official residence.

David Schweikert of Arizona’s CD-6 was reprimanded by the US House and found guilty of  11 counts of ethics violations, and he agreed to pay a 50,000 dollar fine. His race has been moved to “Tossup”.

Ann Wagner of Missouri’s CD-2  race was also moved to “Tossup” because her district consists of the suburbs south and west of the city of St. Louis. Polls from Missouri show Trump has only a single digit lead statewide and Missouri voted this week to expand Medicare with St. Louis County voting in favor of the measure.

Cook Report US House Ratings Changed 8/7/2020
District Old Rating New Rating Incumbent Possible reasons
AZ-6 Lean R Tossup Schweikert-R reprimanded, 50K fine
KS-2 Lean R Likely R Open-R Incumbent defeated
KS-3 Lean D Likely D Davids-D Strong Polling
MI-6 Likely R Lean R Upton-R Weak Polling
MO-2 Lean R Tossup Wagner-R Suburban district

#AZ06 Rep. David Schweikert (R) and #MO02 Rep. Ann Wagner (R) represent near-100% suburban districts where President Trump's numbers have tanked since 2016.That these districts would be Toss Ups in 2020 would have been semi-unthinkable at the beginning of the decade.