Cook Report: Democrats Are Favored to Take the US Senate; Florida Changed to “Lean Biden”

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Cook Political Report has changed the ratings on five US Senate races. In their opinion, the odds now favor Democrats making a net gain of five to seven Senate seats, enough to control the upper house.

July Ratings Changes:

Arizona: Martha McSally (R) — Toss Up → Lean D
Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) — Lean R → Toss Up
Georgia: David Perdue (R) — Lean R → Toss Up
Minnesota: Tina Smith (D) — Likely D → Solid D
New Mexico: OPEN (Udall) — Likely D → Solid D

The Republican held seat in Arizona is now moved to “Lean Democrat”, and a total of six Republican seats are now in the “Tossup” category: Colorado, Georgia (Perdue), Iowa, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina.

Two other seats, Georgia (Loeffler) and Kansas are rated as “Lean Republican”.

And a further four Republican seats are in the “Likely Republican” column: Kentucky, Texas, Alaska, and South Carolina.



One Democratic seat, Alabama, is in the “Likely Republican” column, and the Michigan race has the “Lean Democratic” rating. All the rest of the Democratic seats are now considered “Solid Democrat”. The Democrats currently control 45 seats with two Independents voting with them to make a total of 47.

“Something remarkable would have to happen for Republicans to still have control of the Senate after November,” remarked one GOP pollster. “It’s grim. There’s just so many places where Democrats either have the upper hand or are competitive in states that six months ago we wouldn’t have considered at risk.”

“If you’re an incumbent in a bad environment sitting at 44 percent, you should be pretty damn scared,” another alarmed Republican strategist said. “The expanding map has made it really hard, and there’s just a lot of Democratic momentum right now.”

Cook Report also rates 221 US House seats as “Lean Democrat” or better which by itself would give Democrats a slight majority. Another 25 seats (15 Democratic seats and 10 Republican seats) are rated as “Tossups”.

For President, Cook Report rates 279 electoral votes as “Lean Democrat” or better for Joe Biden. States worth 72 electoral votes are “Tossup”.