CO-Sen: Morning Consult Poll Has John Hickenlooper (D) Beating Cory Gardner (R) 48-39

Here’s the latest news out of Colorado courtesy of Morning Consult’s latest poll:

Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner has a math problem.

The most vulnerable Republican up for re-election this fall boasts stronger support among the party’s base than most of the other GOP Senate contenders this year, but he is being lapped by Democratic rival and former Gov. John Hickenlooper among independents, who make up the lion’s share of the state’s active voter rolls.

“The unaffiliated voters are all that matter, especially in a hyperpolarized environment where you can count on your base to show up,” said Ryan Winger, director of data analysis and research projects at Magellan Strategies, a Republican polling firm.

August data compiled by Colorado’s secretary of state shows roughly 42 percent of the state’s electorate does not identify with either of the two major political parties. Morning Consult’s daily tracking among likely voters from Aug. 21-30 shows Hickenlooper leading Gardner by 29 percentage points, 54 percent to 25 percent, among independents — roughly in line with his average standing with the sizable group since the tracking began more than two months ago.

Both Gardner and Hickenlooper are on solid footing with their respective parties: Gardner has 88 percent support among Republicans, who make up just over 27 percent of the electorate, and 91 percent of Democrats, who make up about 30 percent of the electorate, are backing Hickenlooper.

Overall, the polling of 638 likely voters found Gardner trailing Hickenlooper in the Centennial State by 9 points, 39 percent to 48 percent, which tracks with his average deficit over the past month and mirrors the top-of-the-ticket contest between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

The poll also has Joe Biden beating Trump in Colorado 51-41. Let’s keep up the momentum and flip Colorado Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Hickenlooper, Biden and their fellow Colorado Democrats campaigns:

Joe Biden

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Diane Mitsch Bush