Harry Enten of CNN has an article on how history is against any dramatic rise in Trump’s approval ratings by election time.
Presidential approval ratings, however, haven’t historically moved much from June of an election year to Election Day.
It seems quite likely at this point that Trump’s approval rating is going to be south of 50% and his net approval rating (approval – disapproval) to be negative when people vote. That should be deeply troubling to Trump, given the strong link between approval ratings and reelection chances.There have been 13 presidents who have run for another term in the polling era (since 1940). For each of those presidents, I compared their average Gallup (or, in the case of 1944, the Office of Public Opinion Research) June approval rating and their estimated approval rating on Election Day.The average president has seen his approval rating shift by just 3 points from now until the election. That would only get Trump into the mid 40s at best. Trump’s approval rating was similar during the 2018 midterms, when his party lost control of the House.Net approval ratings tell the same story. The average president had his net approval rating shift by only 6 points from this point forward. Given Trump’s net approval rating is in the negative low to mid-teens, a 6-point improvement would land him with a net approval around -7 to -10 points on Election Day. Again, that’s about where he was during the 2018 midterms.
This would jibe with what some have been saying: attitudes for presidents running for reelection are usually set by the second quarter of the election year. And I cannot see that one of Trump’s biggest strengths — supposedly his handling of the economy — is going to rise dramatically. The jobs that the economy produced during Trump’s first three years are gone.
Now, Trump is lying his ass off that the American economy is taking off. But as medical experts have repeatedly said for months now, you have to take care of the coronavirus first, then the economy may improve. Instead, Trump and Republicans are just wanting to open up all businesses as if the coronavirus is gone.
We will have rising deaths from the coronavirus all the way up to Election day because Trump does NOT want to be bothered with it any more.
Given history and Trump’s actions, I have to agree that I can’t see Trump’s approval ratings going through the roof, especially with more coronavirus deaths and an economy in the dumps. Now, I know. Some of you will say, “We never said they would go throught the roof Merlin.” Yes, but because of the trauma of the 2016 Election, there are far too many of us that are living in dread that Trump will pull some magic trick and win. The only magic Trump will do this time is stealing the election. Otherwise, Trump is running against history.