The Politicus

Create | Share | Influence

close general elections favor Republicans, unless the Electoral College is dissolved

2 min read

Newsweek reports that a new study finds that inversion elections where a popular vote winner loses, favor the GOP. 2020’s hope for Individual-1 lies in a repeat of marginally close outcomes in swing/battleground states.

GOP candidates for president can expect to be victorious in 65 percent of future presidential elections and University of Texas at Austin researchers analyzed why “inversions” — where the popular vote winner loses the overall election — has happened twice since 2000.

The study authors found that the Electoral College’s winner-take-all approach favors Republicans and has pushed them to victories in 2000 and 2016.

The researchers concluded that inversions will occur more and more in 2020 and beyond unless a policy change completely dissolves, rather than reforms, the Electoral College.


Dean Spears, one of the UT-Austin researchers partnered in the study, told Huffington Post there have only been four inversions in presidential elections since 1836. Two such electoral inversions occurred in Republican George W. Bush’s victory over Al Gore in 2000, and Republican Donald Trump’s defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016.…

Notify of

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

The Politicus is a collaborative political community that facilitates content creation directly on the site. Our goal is to make the political conversation accessible to everyone.

Any donations we receive will go into writer outreach. That could be advertising on Facebook, Twitter, and Reddit or person-to-person outreach on College campuses. Please help if you can:

Would love your thoughts, please comment.x