The question is whether the Senate can be flipped, and it depends on the POTUS candidate while holding the House. Turn-out must be by proportion more than in 2016 since the Electoral College requires certain swing states to be won by much larger margins in 2020.

year/Voting Age Population/Turnout/%VAP

2008 229,945,000 131,407,000 58.2%
2012 235,248,000 129,235,000 54.9%
2016 250,056,000 138,847,000 55.7%…

Aside from the phenomenon of ticket-splitting the above chart is interesting in comparison to the analysis of flippable Senate seats.…
Safe D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Safe R
DE (Coons) MN (Smith) CO (Gardner) AZ (McSally) GA-A (Perdue) AL (Jones) AK (Sullivan)
IL (Durbin)
NH (Shaheen)
MI (Peters) GA-B (Loeffler) IA (Ernst) AR (Cotton)
MA (Markey) ME (Collins) KS (OPEN) ID (Risch)
NJ (Booker) NC (Tillis) TX (Cornyn) KY (McConnell)
NM (OPEN) LA (Cassidy)
OR (Merkley) MS (Hyde-Smith)
RI (Reed) MT (Daines)
VA (Warner) NE (Sasse)
OK (Inhofe)
SC (Graham)
SD (Rounds)

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